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Item 3B1
we V CD r I ti c ill CD r O •■ii w N < ac v o to , r 3,... >i+ 0-1 . • a) cu , ' I , r. a) E a) o. _a , '..---mommii—,-. as ir a) . z ..• 0 r.� a g rti II_ a) LL. 0 >" 0 E H u (J) V -- '‘ x� � T zq j b1 Al CITY OF SOUTHLAKE TEXAS Finance Department' s Q uarterly For the period ended December 31, 2011 • I City of Southlake February 2012 Integrity ♦ Innovation • Accountability • Commitment to Excellence • Teamwork To: Shana Yelverton, City Manager From: Sharen Jackson, Finance Director Re: First Quarter FY 2012 Financial Report Date: February 21, 2012 The fmance department is pleased to submit a fmancial report for the first quarter of FY 2012 for the period ended December 31, 2011. This report contains fmancial statements for the City's operating funds and selected special revenue funds, status reports of the Capital Projects and a report of the City's Investment portfolio. I GENERAL FUND REVENUES Property tax. In the General Fund, $7,704,966 of $17,433,230 or 44.2% of budgeted property tax has been collected. Since property tax bills are delinquent as of February 1, most tax collections are received in the first four months of the fiscal year. It is anticipated that collections will meet projections. Tarrant County has collected the City's taxes since 1982. Sales tax. Sales tax budgeted for Fiscal Year 2012 is $8,120,000. For FY 2012 first quarter (October through December) the City has collected $2,677,140 in sales tax. This is 26.1% or $554,850 above the projected amounts to date. The increase is due to budget collections are net Grand Avenue 380 agreement and actual collections include 100% of Grand Avenue collections sales tax. Franchise fees. Franchise fees include amounts received for use of public rights of way from utility companies. To date the City has received $458,267 of $2,693,282 budgeted. FY 2012 collections are comparable to prior year's collections. A large portion of the franchise fees are collected in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. Tri- County pays their second semi - annual payment in July. Fines/Forfeitures. Revenues from Fines and Forfeitures are $310,375, which is 30.6% of the $1,015,000 budgeted. This revenue source depends on many variables, such as the number of citations issued, warrants issued and collected, plus the number of cases assigned to deferred adjudication. Citation volume is slightly higher for first quarter FY 2012 compared to first quarter FY 2011. Citation volume is expected to remain consistent and revenues from fines are anticipated to meet budget. Charges for services. This category includes revenue from ambulance transport, recreation class fees, and amounts received from the Cities of Grapevine and Colleyville for participation in the Teen Court program. Revenues to date total $211,238, compared with $172,615 collected for the same period in the prior year. The majority of the revenue for this category is seasonal and collected during the summer months. It is anticipated that revenue from Charges for Services will be within budgeted amounts. Permits/fees. Revenues from permits and fees are $269,720 or 35.7% of the budgeted amount of $754,800. This is less than $287,640 collected as of December 31, 2010. 22 residential permits have been issued to date compared to 20 issued in the prior fiscal year's first quarter. The largest decrease in permits /fees revenue is due to the decreased value in commercial permits issued during the first quarter FY 2012. 2 and 6 commercial permits were issued for the first quarter December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. Miscellaneous. This category includes amounts from tower leases, the 10% administrative fee retained from Municipal Court State taxes remitted quarterly to the Comptroller, and library fees /fines. The City has received $64,754 to date. Revenues from miscellaneous income will meet the $859,070 budgeted. Interest income. Interest earnings to date total $16,377. It is anticipated that interest income will be within budgeted amounts. GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES For the first quarter ended December 31, 2011 of the fiscal year, General Fund total expenditures are $7,946,447 or 25.0% of the $31,807,649 budget. A brief discussion of each department will follow, providing a summary explanation of major expenditures trends. General government department. Department expenditures for the City Secretary's Office, Human Resources, City Manager's Office, Information Technology and Support Services total $1,153,008 which is 25.4% of budget. Personnel, legal services and utility expenditures are on target with budget. Therefore it is anticipated that expenditures in General Government will be within the amount budgeted. Finance department. For the Finance, Municipal Court, Teen Court Divisions, total expenditures to date are $554,312 or 28.7% of the $1,932,371 budgeted. Personnel, operations and capital expenditures are within budget. Public safety department. Total expenditures for Police Services, Fire Services, and Public Safety Support, are $3,270,043, which is 25.0% of the $13,095,312 budgeted. Currently, public safety expenditures are within budget and on target for the fiscal year. Public works department. Budgeted within this department are Streets/Drainage, Facility Maintenance and Public Works Administration. Expenditures to date are $1,215,803 or 27.9% of the $4,365,447 budgeted. Facility Maintenance has expended 37.4% of the FY 2012 budget due to the expenditures incurred related to the Town Hall leak. An insurance claim was filed with the insurance carrier and the majority of the cost associated with the repairs will be covered under the insurance policy. All other personnel, operations and capital expenditures are within budget. Planning and development department. Total expenditures for Planning and Building Inspections are $428,618 or 23.9% of the $1,790,621 budgeted for the year. Expenditures in the Department are within budget. Economic development department. The department has expended $57,923, or 26.7% of the $216,744 budgeted for the year. Expenditures in the Department are within budget. Community services department. Total expenditures for Community Services, Parks and Recreation, and Library Services are $1,266,740 or 21.6% of the $5,867,983 budgeted. Personnel expenditures are on target with budget. There is $590,000 allocated for contract landscape /mowing for parks and municipal sites with the majority of the mowing during the summer months, consequently minimal expenditures have been made on this line item. Many of the recreation programs are planned for the summer months, therefore minimum expenditures for revenue - supported contract instructors have been spent through December. Expenditures in the Department are expected to be within budget projections. WATER AND SEWER ENTERPRISE FUND Revenues. As of December 31, 2011, the City has received $5,172,249 or 26.8% in revenues of the $19,274,250 estimated. This is comparable to $5,013,238 received through December of last year. Total revenues for the year will most likely be within budget. Expenses. The City has expended $2,286,106 or 11.9% of the $19,181,857 budgeted for personnel, operations, capital, and debt services. Of the total expenses, $1,564,839 has been paid to the City of Fort Worth for treated water. STORMWATER ENTERPRISE FUND Revenues. On October 17, 2006, City Council approved Ordinance No. 900 and 901 establishing the Storm Water Drainage Utility System and establishing the fee respectively. As of December 31, 2011, the City has received $323,938 or 25.5% in revenue of the $1,268,500 estimated. a Expenses. The City has expended $53,880 or 7.7% of the $696,741 budgeted for personnel and operations. $21,954 expended for drainage materials and contract services. DEBT SERVICE FUND Revenues. The City has received $5,617,872 in current and delinquent property taxes through December 31, 2011. This fund pays the property tax supported debt requirements for the City. The first semi -annual payments are due beginning February 2012. SOUTHLAKE PARKS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION (SPDC) Operating Fund. As of December 31, 2011, $1,318,591 in the 1 /s cent sales tax has been collected. SPDC sales tax receipts are 5.39% above estimates, or $67,467. CRIME CONTROL AND PREVENTION DISTRICT (CCPD) Operating Fund. As of December 31, 2011, $1,311,132 in the l/ cent sales tax has been collected. Sales tax receipts are 10.5% above estimates, or $125,283. PARK DEDICATION FEE FUND Revenues. The City has not collected any park dedication funds as of December 31, 2011. This revenue source varies depending on the number of developments during a fiscal year, and the park dedication fee credits given, if any, for open space and amenities. TAX INCREMENT FINANCIAL DISTRICT (TIF) Revenues. To date TIF has not received any revenues for the fiscal year. Historically, the TIF revenues are not collected until the third quarter of the fiscal year. STRATEGIC INITIATIVE FUND Expenditures. As of December 31, 2011, the expenditures were $64,077 for community enhancement. HOTEL OCCUPANCY FUND Revenues. The City has collected $149,001 or 20.0% in revenue of the $746,105 budgeted for the year. The Hotel Occupancy Tax is authorized under the Texas Tax Code, Chapter 351. The City of Southlake adopted Ordinance No. 769 in February 2000, levying a 7% tax on room receipts. The Hilton Hotel in Town Square opened in June 2007. Expenditures. As of December 31, 2011, the expenditures were $93,975 for personnel, advertising and marketing and promotion. GENERAL FUND Statement of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance for the period ended December 31, 2011 with comparative actual amounts for the period ended December 31, 2010 (fiscal month 3- 25.00%) Percent Year to Date 2012 Collected/ Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget Ex - .the 12/31/10 Ad Valorem Taxes $7,704,966 $17,433,230 44.2% $6,073,601 Sales Tax 2,677,140 8,120,000 33.0% 2,573,726 Franchise Fees 458,267 2,693,282 17.0% 266,811 Fines 310,375 1,015,000 30.6% 220,112 Charges for Services 211,238 1,030,080 20.5% 172,615 Permits/Fees 269,720 754,800 35.7% 287,640 Miscellaneous 64,754 859,070 7.5% 27,908 Interest Income 16,377 70,000 23.4% 13,650 Total Revenues $11,712,837 $31,975,462 36.6% $9,636,063 EXPENDITURES City Secretary $94,781 $417,879 22.7% $84,851 Human Resources 98,558 408,666 24.1% 94,744 City Manager 162,486 610,092 26.6% 165,720 Information Technology 488,076 2,001,109 24.4% 421,293 Support Services 309,107 1,101,425 28.1% 300,510 General Government Total 1,153,008 4,539,171 25.4% 1,067,118 Finance 378,300 1,141,146 33.2% 382,993 Municipal Court 143,416 639,671 22.4% 144,107 Municipal Court-Teen Court 32.596 151,554 2L5% 29,940 Finance Total 554,312 1,932,371 28.7% 557,040 Fire 1,330,893 5,757,633 23.1% 1,436,382 Police 1,557,588 5,793,022 26.9% 1,483,371 Public Safety Support 381,562 1.544,657 24.7% 374,852 Public Safety Total 3,270,043 13,095,312 25.0% 3,294,605 Streets/Drainage 371,092 1,741,829 21.3% 390,147 Facility Maintenance 589,110 1,575,686 37.4% 187,268 Public Works Administration 255,601 1,047,932 24.4% 240,976 Public Works Total 1,215,803 4,365,447 27.9% 818,391 Building Inspections 214,664 879,705 24.4% 230,922 Planning 213,954 910,916 23.5% 235,613 Planning and Dev Total 428,618 1,790,621 23.9% 466,535 Economic Development 57,923 216,744 26.7% 46,705 Economic Development Total 57,923 216,744 26.7% 46,705 Community Services 132,023 591,729 22.3% 128,136 Parks and Recreation 938,252 4,603,839 20.4% 889,894 Library Services 196,465 672,415 29.2% 180,484 Community Services Total 1,266,74) 5,867,983 21.6% 1,198,514 Total Expenditures $7,946,447 $31,807,649 25.0% $7,448,908 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenditures $3,766,390 $167,813 $2,187,155 OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Proceeds from lease/CO (net) $0 $0 $0 Transfer In -Other Funds 1,254,387 1,254,387 0 Transfer To-Other Funds (1,200,000) (1,200,000) 0 Total Other Sources /(Uses) $54,387 $54,387 $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues/other sources over Exp. $3,820,777 $222,200 $2,187,155 FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $7,753,113 Change in reserved fund balance $0 ENDING FUND BALANCE $7,975,313 fund balance percentage 25.07% a WATER AND SEWER ENTERPRISE FUND Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenses for the period ended December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010 0 (fiscal month 3- 25.00%) Percent Year to Date 2012 Collecte Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget Ex. - nde• 12/31/10 Water Sales - residential $2,781,442 $10,420,000 26.7% $2,639,691 Water Sales- commercial 743,497 2,740,000 27.1% 816,652 Sewer Sales 1,191,835 4,440,000 26.8% 1,127,148 Sanitation Sales 333,886 1,300,000 25.7% 341,937 Other utility charges 110,746 286,750 38.6% 77,965 Miscellaneous 7,651 37,500 20.4% 6,206 Interest Income 3,192 50,000 6.4% 3.639 Total Revenues $5,172,249 $19,274,250 26.8% $5,013,238 EXPENSES Water $1,453,210 $9,554,571 15.2% $1,184,121 Utility Billing 105,838 492,322 21.5% 104,434 Sewer 533,033 2,063,252 25.8% 407,353 Sanitation 194,025 936,000 20.7% 209,457 Debt Service 1 0 6,135,712 0.0% 0 Total Expenses $2,286,106 $19,181,857 11.9% $1,905,365 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenses $2,886.143 $92,393 $3,107,873 OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Transfer In -Other Funds $0 $0 Developer Contributions $0 $50,000 $0 Transfer Out -Other Funds (811,050) (811,050) 0 Total Other Sources/(Uses) ($811,050) ($761,050) $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues and other sources over Expenses $2,075,093 ($668.657) $3.107.873 STRATEGIC INITIATIVE FUND Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenditures for the period ended December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010 (fiscal month 3- 25.00 %) Percen Year to Date 2012 Collecte• Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget Ex,endeI 12/31/10 Interest Income $1,870 $29,000 6.4% $1,342 Total Revenues $1,870 $29,000 6.4% $1,342 EXPENDITURES Infrastructure Maintenance $0 $0 0.0% $0 Community Enhancement 64,077 385,000 16.6% 93,696 Technology Infrastructure 0 65,000 0.0% 5,899 Capital Acquisition 0 0 0.0% 76,869 Total Expenditures $64,077 $450,000 14.2% $176,464 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenses ($62,207) ($421,000) ($175,122) OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Transfer In -Other Funds $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $0 Transfer Out -Other Funds (3,375,000) (3,375,000) 0 Total Other Sources /(Uses) ($2,175,000) ($2,175,000) $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues and other sources over Expenses ($2,237,207) ($2,596,000) ($175,122) FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $4,069,074 Change in reserved fund balance $ ENDING FUND BALANCE $1,473,074 0 SOUTHLAKE PARKS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenditures for the period ended December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010 (fiscal month 3- 25.00 %) Percent Year to Date 2012 Collec .. Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget Ex 1 - nd - • 12/31/10 Sales Tax $1,318,591 $4,480,000 29.4% $1,267,656 Rental Income 25,637 153,816 16.7% 25,637 Interest Income 799 15,000 5.3% 2,256 Total Revenues $1,345,027 $4,648,816 28.9% $1,295,549 EXPENDITURES Personnel $27,664 $99,151 27.9% $27,027 Operations 4,025 169,800 2.4% $4,327 Capital 0 88.000 0.0% 39,866 Total Expenditures $31,689 $356,951 8.9% $71,220 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenses $1,313,338 $4,291,865 $1,224,329 OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Transfer In-Other Funds $0 $0 $0 Transfer Out -Other Funds (4,899,788) (4,899,788) 0 Total Other Sources/(Uses) ($4,899,788) ($4,899,788) $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues and other sources over Expenses ($3,586,450) ($607,923) $1,224,329 FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $6,009,340 Change in reserved fund balance $0 ENDING FUND BALANCE $5,401,417 CRIME CONTROL AND PREVENTION DISTRICT ate. Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenditures for the period ended December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010 (fiscal month 3- 25.00 %) Percent Year to Date 2012 Collecte s Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget ExIended 12/31/10 Sales Tax $1,311,132 $4,400,000 29.8% $1,251,827 Interest Income 2,797 20,000 14.0% 2,865 Total Revenues $1,313,929 $4,420,000 29.7% $1,254,692 EXPENDITURES Personnel $0 $0 0.0% $0 Operations 6,060 94,636 6.4% 6,929 Capital 0 185,153 0.0% 26,555 Total Expenditures $6,060 $279,789 2.2% $33,484 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenses $1,307,869 $4,140,211 $1,221,208 OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Transfer In -Other Funds $0 $0 $0 Transfer Out -Other Funds (2,149,600) (2,149,600) 0 Total Other Sources /(Uses) ($2,149,600) ($2,149,600) $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues and other sources over Expenses ($841,731) $1,990,611 $1,221,208 FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $6,491,163 Change in reserved fund balance $0 ENDING FUND BALANCE $8,481,774 I HOTEL OCCUPANCY TAX Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenditures for the period ended December 31, 2011 and December 31, 2010 (fiscal month 3- 25.00%) Percen Year to Date 2012 Coll Year to Date REVENUES 12/31/11 Budget Expend 12/31/10 Taxes $147,598 $741,105 19.9% $137,115 Interest Income 1,403 5,000 28.1% 1,298 Total Revenues $149,001 $746,105 20.0% $138,413 EXPENDITURES Personnel $35,864 $150,860 23.8% $33,124 Operations $58,111 546,628 10.6% $79,930 Capital 0 0 0.0% 0 Total Expenditures $93,975 $697,488 13.5% $113,054 Excess (deficiency) of Revenue over Expenses $55,026 $48,617 $25,359 OTHER FINANCING SOURCES AND (USES) Transfer In -Other Funds $0 $0 $0 Transfer Out -Other Funds (141,760) (141,760) 0 Total Other Sources /(Uses) ($141,760) ($141,760) $0 Excess (deficiency) of Revenues and other sources over Expenses ($86,734) ($93,143) $25,359 FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $1,089,692 Change in reserved fund balance $0 ENDING FUND BALANCE $996,549 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE 1% SALES TAX REPORT t 2012 Collected Budget Balance Budget to Date Balance Percent $ 7,900,000 $2,677,140 ($5,222,860) - 66.11% FISCAL FISCAL FISCAL YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc MONTH 2010 -Dec 2011 -Dec 2012 -Dec October 679,511 -1.0% 703,770 3.6% 639,737 -9.1% November 688,980 -14.1% 756,991 9.9% 790,535 4.4% December 1,151,019 -2.0% 1,112,965 -3.3% 1,246,867 12.0% January 596,748 - 21.5% 688,448 15.4% 0 - 100.0% February 603,122 -2.7% 571,598 -5.2% 0 - 100.0% March 838,469 -2.0% 942,332 12.4% 0 - 100.0% April 712,838 -4.9% 744,210 4.4% 0 - 100.0% May 654,222 - 16.9% 723,593 10.6% 0 - 100.0% June 870,540 -5.1% 946,628 8.7% 0 - 100.0% July 681,329 -9.3% 728,864 7.0% 0 - 100.0% August 688,033 4.7% 745,067 8.3% 0 - 100.0% September 856 997 -0.8% 915,961 6.9% _ 0 - 100.0% q TOTAL $9,021,807 $9,580,428 $2,677,140 Three Year Revenue Comparison by Month 1,400,000 1,200,000 - II 1,000,000 a 1 Q o 600,000 - _ 400,000 - . 200,000 ` ■ d. r u � ° � �,` Fes` 4-1, 0 � �� Nr , N � � P J � .4` <� �� c O do Cr F/ coeQ O FISCAL YEAR 2010 OFISCAL YEAR 2011 FISCAL YEAR 2012 Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.) % Month 2011 2012 2012 2012 Difference Change October( *) $703,770 $580,327 $639,737 $ 639,737 $ 59,410 10.24% November( *) $756,991 $624,214 $790,535 $ 790,535 $ 166,321 26.64% December( *) $1,112,965 $917,749 $1,246,867 $ 1,246,867 $ 329,119 35.86% January( *) $688.448 $567,693 $0 $ 567,693 $ - 0.00% February( *) $571,598 $471,339 $0 $ 471,339 $ - 0.00% March( *) $942,332 $777,045 $0 $ 777,045 $ - 0.00% April ( *) $744,210 $613,674 $0 $ 613,674 $ - 0.00% Ma ( *) $723,593 $596,673 $0 $ 596,673 $ - 0.00% June ( *) $946,628 $780,588 $0 $ 780,588 $ - 0.00% July ( *) $728,864 $601,019 $0 $ 601,019 $ - 0.00% August( *) $745,067 $614,380 $0 $ 614,380 $ - 0.00% I ( September( *) $915,961 $755,299 So $ 755,299 $ - 0.00% TOTAL $ 9,580,428 $ 7,900,000 $ 2,677,140 $ 8,454,850 $ 554,850 * Beginning April 2006 includes Grand Avenue sales tax collections per 380 agreement 80% of collections will be distributed to Cooper & Stebbins SOUTHLAKE PARKS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION 1/2% SALES TAX REPORT 2012 Collected Budget Balance Budget to Date Balance Percent $ 4,480,000 $1,318,591 ($3,161,409) - 70.57% FISCAL FISCAL FISCAL YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc MONTH 2010 -Dec 2011 -Dec 2012 -Dec October $334,685 -1.0% $346,633 3.6% $315,095 -9.1% November $339,348 -14.1% $372,847 9.9% $389,368 4.4% December $566,920 -2.0% $548,177 -3.3% $614,129 12.0% January $293,920 -21.5% $339,087 15.4% $0 - 100.0% February $297,060 -2.7% $281,534 -5.2% $0 - 100.0% March $412,977 -2.0% $464,134 12.4% $0 - 100.0% April $351,099 -4.9% $366,551 4.4% $0 - 100.0% May $322,229 - 16.9% $356,396 10.6% $0 - 100.0% June $428,774 -5.1% $466,250 8.7% $0 - 100.0% July $335,580 -9.3% $358,992 7.0% $0 - 100.0% August $338,882 4.7% $366,973 8.3% $0 - 100.0% September $422,103 -0.8% $451,145 6.9% $0 - 100.0% TOTAL $ 4,443,577 $4,718,718 $1,318,591 Three Year Revenue Comparison by Month $700,000 $600,000 - $500,000 $400,000 e $300,000 _ - $200,000 ` - e i $100,000 1 414 O �o� ,o 4 e P c,e9 El FISCAL YEAR 2009 DRSCAL YEAR 2010 FISCAL YEAR 2012 Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.) % 2011 2012 2012 2012 Difference Change MONTH October $346,633 $337,428 $315,095 $ 315,095 $ (22,333) -6.62% November $372,847 $342,130 $389,368 $ 389,368 $ 47,238 13.81% December $548,177 $571,567 $614,129 $ 614,129 $ 42,562 7.45% January $339,087 $296,330 $0 $ 296,330 $ - 0.00% February $281,534 $299,495 $0 $ 299,495 $ - 0.00% March $464,134 $416,362 $0 $ 416,362 $ - 0.00% April $366,551 $353,977 $0 $ 353,977 $ - 0.00% May $356,396 $324,870 $0 $ 324,870 $ - 0.00% June $466,250 $432,288 $0 $ 432,288 $ - 0.00% July $358,992 $338,331 $0 $ 338,331 $ - 0.00% August $366,973 $341,660 $0 $ 341,660 $ - 0.00% September $451,145 $425,563 $0 $ 425,563 $ - 0.00% TOTAL $ 4,718,718 $ 4,480,000 $ 1,318,591 $ 4,547,467 $ 67,467 5 .39°/ SOUTHLAKE CRIME CONTROL AND PREVENTION DISTRICT 1/2% SALES TAX REPORT 2012 Collected Budget Balance Budget to Date Balance Percent $ 4,400,000 $1,311,132 (3,088,868) - 70.20% Fiscal Year Percent Fiscal Year Percent Fiscal Year Percent 2010 Increase/ 2011 Increase/ 2012 Increase/ MONTH Actual (Decrease) Actual (Decrease) Actual (Decrease) October $320,459 -4.10% $351,298 9.62% $319,722 -8.99% November 336,820 - 10.48% 370,998 10.15% 390,919 5.37% December 540,201 0.70% 529,531 -1.98% 600,491 13.40% January 227,361 -37.31% 336,342 47.93% - - 100.00% February 293,001 -2.12% 281,634 -3.88% - - 100.00% March 383,172 0.10% 440,772 15.03% - - 100.00% April 351,672 - 3.14% 366,425 4.20% - - 100.00% May 320,824 - 17.36% 360,191 12.27% - - 100.00% June 412,362 -2.16% 451,427 9.47% - - 100.00% July 331,914 - 8.40% 356,866 7.52% - - 100.00% August 331,914 4.10% 371,318 11.87% - - 100.00% September 395,444 -0.09% 428,005 8.23% - - 100.00% TOTAL $4,245,144 $4,644,807 $1,311,132 Three Year Revenue Comparison by Month $700,000 MIII $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 _ - - - $300,000 s . $200,000 . , . $100,000 $0 c vet G�o ®e ��c 0 0 c6 C‘ �� ��r I t 4 0 C e ,f‘ ,§;" .ma J O Ao n ) tie ,09 qb •Fiscal Year 2010 Actual is Fiscal Year 2011 Actual Fiscal Year 2012 Actual Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.) 2011 2012 2012 2012 Difference Change October $ 351,298 $ 332,783 $ 319,722 $ 319,722 $ (13,061) -3.92% November $ 370,998 $ 351,444 $ 390,919 $ 390,919 $ 39,475 11.23% December $ 529,531 $ 501,622 $ 600,491 $ 600,491 $ 98,869 19.71% January $ 336,342 $ 318,615 $ - $ 318,615 $ - 0.00% February $ 281,634 $ 266,790 $ - $ 266,790 $ - 0.00% March $ 440,772 $ 417,541 $ - $ 417,541 $ - 0.00% April $ 366,425 $ 347,112 $ - $ 347,112 $ - 0.00% May $ 360,191 $ 341,207 $ - $ 341,207 $ - 0.00% June $ 451,427 $ 427,634 $ - $ 427,634 $ - 0.00% July $ 356,866 $ 338,057 $ - $ 338,057 $ - 0.00% August $ 371,318 $ 351,747 $ - $ 351,747 $ - 0.00% September $ 428,005 $ 405,447 $ - $ 405,447 $ - 0.00% TOTAL $ 4,644,807 $ 4,400,000 $ 1,311,132 $ 4,525,283 $ 125,283 E E O O O 0 E cn �F+ U CU W N ks- 0 C.) ® ® 6 J � 3 ® lJ O� t V1 c LL a cu w � N L Jr_ a N C L co c a 0 c a co C T L N T a) N E U co - c O c'c O C o) r O : a) = U O) d O O O O - (6 0 c 0 N r s o E co a _ > o a>> o ` m E - o- co a) 0 • • _E To o v o -o a, ° E E a`> E E c v n a) o N > O L V) O m a) c O O_ -o O ` _ a) 0 > N O) O] > o 0 0 co O m n 12 0 0 3 0 Q Z M a)- co - CO 0 a) E L ° ° ° o 3 w w a 0 v o E m° W O cn 0 O co '0 00o0 N 2 co - > c T O N CO m a) u1 N O a d 0 cn C d 0 in N d - Y 3 W O u' a) L _ O D a u' C E N ~ a n 3 0 o p Z a N a - j m >, _ O a) > U Y m a) a) p - 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Y L CO O L 0 0 Q 0 o i'• — U o o 3 0 s CO R 0 13 a) U = a) C O a d p O a 1- U a) U E Thei in a) n A y o w F cri oitz / C C • O. = E G U as a 3 a N u, .. • a 0 N O U a CITY OF SOUTHLAKE FINANCE DEPARTMENT CITY OF SOUTHLAKE CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PROGRAM QUARTERLY STATUS REPORT December 31, 2011 The Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) establishes a five (5) year funding schedule for the purchase, construction or replacement of physical assets of the City. Capital improvements typically have a useful life of over ten (10) years and a value greater than $10,000. Most CIP projects typically involve major infrastructure development and improvement. CIP projects are primarily funded through General Obligation (GO) bonds and Revenue Certificates of Obligation. The City of Southlake's CIP Quarterly Status Report has been designed as a resource tool to be utilized by City staff, citizens of Southlake, and the community at large. The objective of this report is to provide timely and accurate information in a user friendly format regarding construction and other improvement projects in the City of Southlake. Projects within the City's CIP are categorized as follows: Street and Drainage Improvements, Traffic Management Projects, Water System Improvements, Sewer System Improvements, Crime Control Projects and Southlake Parks Development Corp. Improvement Projects. 1400 Main Street Suite 440 • Southlake, TX 76092 (817) 748 -8042 • www.ci.southlake.tx.us TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Street and Drainage Improvements 1 Traffic Management Projects 6 Water System Improvements 8 Sewer System Improvements 10 Crime Control Projects 11 Southlake Parks Development Corp Improvements 12 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: FM 1938 Randol Mill Road from On December 31, 2001, the TCC approved a Minute Order FM 1709 north to the city limits giving the extension of FM 1938 along the Randol Mill ROW Priority II funding status and Farm to Market designation. The project involves paving, utility and drainage improvements along the existing Randol Mill Road from FM1709 to SH114 to its ultimate pavement section of four lanes divided. Construction of FM1938 will be in two phases. Phase 1 is from the bend in Randol Mill Road to SH114. Phase 2 is from the intersection of FM1709 and Randol Mill Road /Davis Blvd. to the bend in Randol Mill. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 2,726,449 $ 1,192,608 $ 1,533,841 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Phase 1 of the project was awarded in August 2009 with a contract time of 448 working days and construction is Currently ongoing. Right of way and easement appraisals began in January 2011 for acquisition by Tarrant County and are approximately 60% complete. Completion Date: Pending completion of Phase I Title: Location: Project Description: N. White Chapel Ultimate N. White Chapel from Emerald This project is for the design of the ultimate roadway Roadway to State Hwy. 114 section (4 lanes divided) as depicted by the Thoroughfare Plan. This project also includes necessary drainage and utility improvements. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 8,640,000 $ 652,434 $ 7,987,566 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest, Roadway Impact funds Design is currently underway. Construction is tentatively scheduled to begin in 2013. Completion Date: FY 2013 -14 Page 1 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: Sidewalks throughout the city Various locations Construction of sidewalks in areas where staff has received requests for the installation of sidewalks, primarily around schools and areas where sidewalks would improve pedestrian safety. This project also consists of the installation of sidewalks along FM1709 to fill in existing gaps not being constructed in conjunction with the deceleration lanes. In addition to support from TxDOT, federal matching funds from the State Transportation Enhancement Program supports this project as well. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 2,607,168 $ 640,538 $ 1,966,631 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, Strategic Initiative Fund transfer TxDOT construction of FM1709 sidewalks is anticipated to begin fall of 2012. Completion Date: When funds are depleted Title: Location: Project Description: N. Kimball Avenue N. Kimball Ave from SH 114 to This project involves paving, utility, and drainage Dove Rd. improvements for the widening of North Kimball Avenue from SH 114 to Dove Road to its ultimate four lane divided pavement section. The construction of this project will be divided into two Phases. Phase I is along N. Kimball Ave. from SH 114 to Kirkwood Blvd. and Phase II is the continuation along N. Kimball Ave. from Kirkwood Blvd. up to Dove Rd. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: 6,380,000 $ 5,896,142 $ 483,859 Funding Source(s): Status: Roadway Impact fees, G.O. Bonds Right of way acquisition is currently ongoing north of E. Highland St. Construction began in December 2010. Completion Date: Fall 2012 Page 2 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: FM1709 medians and urban Entire length of FM1709 within The Urban Design Study included median layouts along the design enhancements city limits entire length of FM1709 within the City of Southlake, and included a conceptual design for landscaping, irrigation and miscellaneous hardscaping. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 2,000,000 $ 1,551,683 $ 448,317 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds Construction of the medians are now complete. Irrigation and landscaping are nearing completion. Completion Date: Spring 2012 Title: Location: Project Description: Roadway reconstruction in multiple Heatherwood Estates, Royal Oaks The project includes the reconstruction of the streets in the subdivisions, Dove Road and Addition, Twin Creeks Addition, Heatherwood, Royal Oaks, and Twin Creeks subdivisions as Primrose Lane. Primrose Lane and Dove Rd. from well as the reconstruction of Dove Road from Lonesome Lonesome Dove to North Kimball Dove to North Kimball Avenue and the widening and reconstruction of Primrose Lane. The roadway work will begin subsequent to the construction of sanitary sewer lines and /or water lines in the mentioned locations. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 1,672,327 $ 1,305,023 $ 367,304 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds The project was awarded in November 2009 by the City Council. The project is in the final inspection stages. Completion Date: Spring 2012 Page 3 w a r CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: Kirkwood Blvd. - N. This project involves funding for the design and construction Carroll connector of two concrete north lanes along Kirkwood Blvd. from the existing Kirkwood terminus to Grace Ln. This project also involves the reconfiguration of two asphalt lanes along Highland St. west to Blythe to connect to Kirkwood Blvd. Also included is the reconfiguration of the Highland and Kirkwood intersection. This project is needed to facilitate travel to and from the new Carroll ISD middle school opening in fall 2011. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 1,845,300 $ 1,503,338 $ 341,962 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, Strategic Initiative Fund The contract was awarded by the City Council in November 2010 and work began December 2010. The roadway portion of the project is complete and open to traffic. The remainder of this project is for landscape finalization. Completion Date: Fall 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: PMA - Citywide Various locations The PMA is an on -going program which consists of the Pavement Rehabilitation repair and /or rehabilitation of local streets throughout the City of Southlake after the completion of neighborhood utility projects. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 1,793,923 $ 617,681 $ 1,176,242 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds Construction status varies Completion Date: When funds are depleted Page 4 r r CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Protect Description: Woodland Heights and Westwood Drive & This project involves paving and drainage improvements McPherson connector Village Center to connect Westwood Drive to Village Center. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 700,000 $ 153,840 $ 546,160 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds Design is complete for the Westwood connector and the right of way acquisition is 75% complete. Construction wit begin as soon as the final right of way is acquired and is anticipated to take approximately 120 days to complete, weather permitting. Preliminary design is underway for the McPherson connector. Construction of this connector is contingent upon right of way acquisition. Completion Date: FY2011 -12 Title: Location: Protect Description: FM1709 Illuminated Street Signs At all signals along FM1709 from Install backlit intersection signage at major intersections SH114 to Pearson Lane Citywide similar to the existing signage at Kimball Avenue and SH114. Backlit signage will increase their visibility and increase commuter safety. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 300,000 $ 31,200 $ 268,800 Funding Source(s): Status: Strategic Initiative Fund Construction is anticipated to begin Spring 2012. Completion Date: FY2011 -12 Page 5 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Traffic Management Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: Agreement with TXDOT for Jellico Court East and West Construction of intersection improvements with construction of deceleration Brock Dr., Meadowlark Ln., deceleration lanes along FM 1709 from Jellico Circle lanes at various locations Southridge Lakes Pkwy & West to Bank Street. along FM 1709. Waterford Dr., Ginger Ct., Stone Lakes PI., Timber Lake PI., Lake Crest Dr., Bicentennial Park, Diamond Blvd. /Byron Nelson Pkwy., Foxborough Ln., Miron Dr., Westwood Dr., Commerce St., Bank St. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 500,000 $ 5,976 $ 494,025 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Construction is currently ongoing through spring 2012. Completion Date: Spring 2012 Title: Location: Project Description: Design of right turn deceleration Various locations on Southlake Professional services agreement with TranSystems lanes Blvd. Corporation. Services will include design, right -of -way surveying with digital aerial photogrammetry, preparation of construction plans and specifications, and preparation of construction documents. The project will also address drainage and culvert issues that are necessary to accommodate the widening. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 418,123 $ 336,203 $ 81,920 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest The design of the deceleration lanes is complete and construction is currently ongoing through spring 2012. Completion Date: Spring 2012 Page 6 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Traffic Management Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: FM1709 utility relocations Along FM 1709 This project consists of the relocation of existing water and sanitary sewer lines to meet TxDOT's requirements for the construction of the deceleration lanes at multiple locations along FM 1709. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 678,100 $ 492,787 $ 185,313 Funding Source(s): Status: G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Construction is currently ongoing. All city utilities have been relocated with the exception of the 20" water line at Jellico East and Jellico West. Utility construction at Jellico will be completed in 2012. Completion Date: Spring 2012 Page 7 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Water System Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: 30" water supply line to serve TW Segment A thru F Construct approximately 7,500 linear feet of 30" water King Pump Station #2 TW King Pump Station #2 transmission line in order to fully utilize pump station #2 and the ground storage tanks. Currently, this pump station is not connected to the Fort Worth supply line. It has to be back fed from pump station #1. This process is inefficient and reduces the City's ability to pump water throughout the system. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 13,363,260 $ 3,970,325 $ 9,392,934 Funding Source(s): Status: Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Segments A and F are complete. Design of Phases B, C, D and E is underway and approximately 90% complete. Right of way acquisition is approximately 30% complete for Segment B. Segments C and D require both an interlocal agreement and a license agreement with the City of Westlake, and Segment E requires the completion of negotiations for an easement with the property owner. Completion Date: FY2012 -13 Title: Location: Project Description: 20" water main along Town Square to N. This project consists of approximately 8400 linear feet of SH114 White Chapel 20 -inch transmission water line. The water line is needed in conjunction with the construction of the 30 -inch water supply main to TW King pump station #2 Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 2,470,000 $ 1,163,582 $ 1,306,418 Funding Source(s): Status: Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Project design is complete. The construction contract was awarded to Wilson Contracting and construction began in September 2011. Construction is anticipated to be completed by May 2012. Completion Date: April 2012 Page 8 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Water System Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: T.W. King meter station T.W. King pump This project consists of the design and construction of a new station #2 meter station for the purpose of meeting the city's future water demand. This project is a companion to the 30 -inch water supply line to serve the T.W. King pump station #2. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 372,600 $ 41,079 $ 331,521 Funding Source(s): Status: Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Design is 50% complete and plans have been submitted for review by the City's water supplier, the City of Fort Worth. Construction is dependent upon the completed placement of the 30 -inch water supply line segments. Completion Date: FY2012 - 13 Page 9 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Sewer System Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: 8" sewer line Heatherwood Estates This project involves providing sanitary sewer service to the Royal Oaks Estates indicated neighborhoods which are experiencing problems Twin Creek Estates with septic systems; also to improve groundwater quality Pearson Lane within the city. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 4,133,663 $ 3,055,956 $ 1,077,707 Funding Source(s): Status: Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation The project was awarded November 2009 and is in the (issued in 2008) final inspection stages. Completion Date: Spring 2012 • • • ■ y Page 10 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Crime Control Fund Projects -- 0 Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: North DPS Facility Dove Road and Fire station to support fire and EMS services for north White Chapel part of the city. The facility will also double as a Police and Fire Services training facility. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 1,200,000 $ 1,193,629 $ 6,371 Funding Source(s): Status: Crime Control sales tax The project is currently in the design stage. Completion Date: TBA • 1 ■ Page 11 CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS FY 2011 -12 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN -- Southlake Parks Development Corp. Improvement Projects -- Report Date: December 31, 2011 Title: Location: Project Description: North Park Development Phase I Dove Road and Development of park area for lacrosse fields with potential White Chapel shared use for youth football and flag football. Improvements include lighted athletic fields, trails, open space, playground, parking, concession /restroom building, exercise equipment, landscaping, irrigation, etc. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 6,656,387 $ 4,935,587 $ 1,720,799 Funding Source(s): Status: SPDC Operating Fund Construction has begun and is approximately 76% Sales Tax Revenue Bonds complete. Completion Date: Summer 2012 Title: Location: Project Description: ■ Bicentennial Park design and Bicentennial Park Phase II improvements include baseball fields, concession/ development, Phase II restroom facility, playground, batting cages, park boulevard connection to White Chapel Blvd., satellite parks maintenance facility, parking, trails, landscaping and irrigation. Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete: $ 9,831,000 $ 83,440 $ 9,747,560 Funding Source(s): Status: SPDC Operating Fund Design is currently underway. Sales Tax Revenue Bonds Completion Date: January 2014 Page 12 FirstSouthwest fiat 0 The overriding theme of the fourth quarter was improvement in the In recent months, the financial condition of Italy, the world's eighth domestic economy. Although problems in Europe again dominated largest economy has worsened, which has resulted in an untimely spike news headlines, a glimmer of hope emerged for the U.S. The housing in borrowing costs, further compounding the problem. Analysts at market, after years of skimming along the bottom, is showing tentative Standard & Poor's believe recessions already impacting Greece, Portugal signs of a rebound. Payroll gains and a declining unemployment rate and Spain are likely to spread to larger European countries in the first suggest a recuperating job market. Measures of consumer confidence half of 2012. This, along with a strengthening dollar, is almost certain to are improving and inflation has moderated as commodity prices hurt U.S. exports to Europe, but the impact resulting from continued have declined. The good news is tempered, however, by the sovereign deterioration of the global economy is largely unknown. debt crisis gripping Europe and over indebted consumers. For four consecutive years, households have been reducing their debt loads. HOUSING Whether voluntary or involuntary, the effect was the same - the 1,050 E.0 economy slowed when consumers curtailed their spending. From 2001 through 2006, household debt grew at a supercharged, perhaps reckless, 950 — 7.5 ® Existing Home Sales 11% per year, before slowing and then falling at nearly a 2% rate for - • 7.o m 2009 and 2010. The most recent Federal Reserve quarterly flow of funds 850 New Home Sales statement showed that household debt decreased by an annual rate of g 750 - s.s x 1.25% in the third quarter, roughly the same pace as in the first half, m • so 3 while home mortgage debt fell at an annual rate of 1.75 %. The result t o 650 10 was that total household debt had fallen to 119% of disposable income, i - 5.5 a • down from a peak of 135% at the end of 2007. This is hardly lean, but i 550 5.0 3 the Levels of debt are moving in the right direction and paving the way z 450 — for future spending. a.s H 350 — /•_. / - 4.0 P News reported in December that banks had increased their , ness loans at an average annual rate of almost 10% in the third 250 3.5 ..., 7,' 3 a z i, 3 a g m 3 a z 1 > 2 > 2 quarter, compared with a 1.7% decline over the past four years. The most q < m f P < m < Q < m < q < m < 7 19 recent monthly numbers show seasonally adjusted loan growth of 15% m m `° f. in October, and 6.1% in November. The October survey of senior loan NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES o ff i c e r s revealed that U.S. banks have now loosened lending standards A n n u a l i z e d by Month for eight straight quarters. The recent lending increase seems to be the For reasons unclear, the U.S. housing market is starting to show signs result of rising loan demand, another ingredient to recovery that had of life. Part of the rebound may simply be that housing supply is more been missing for some time. At the November FOMC meeting, Fed in line with demand. Existing home sales rose by 4.0% in November to officials said that business lending had "accelerated" beyond the "strong a 4.42 million unit annual rate, the highest since January. The number increases" seen in the first half of the year. Amid much criticism of Fed of existing homes listed for sale fell to a 61 -year low, and the estimated monetary policy, it seems to be gaining traction. And the economic supply at the current sales pace hit a two -year low of seven months, recovery thus far is chipping away at the government shortfall. A 2.3% nearing a more normal level of six months. On top of the reduced rise in Federal tax receipts along with a 3.2% reduction in government supply, there remains an uncertain overhang of "shadow inventory" on spending helped reduce the budget deficit to $137 billion in November. the books of financial institutions, but even these estimates have been A year ago, the November deficit was $150 billion. scaled back in recent months. New home sales rose 1.6% in November to a seven -month high of 315,000, leaving the total number of new Economist Paul Krugman has said even though we may have finally homes available for sale at an all-time low of 158,000, representing stopped digging, we're still at the bottom of a very deep hole, but if it's just a six-month supply at the current sales pace. So maybe a bottom any comfort, the economic challenges faced by the U. S. are shared has finally been reached. An estimated 305,000 new homes were sold by the majority of the world's developed countries. The Eurozone during 2011, less than 25% of the 1.28 million in 2005, but many of the seems no closer to resolving its long -term sovereign debt crisis. The leading housing indicators are flashing improvement. The November insurmountable problem is that the degree of belt - tightening required pending home sales index increased by 7.3% to the highest level in 19 to get debt -to -GDP ratios back to the rule -of -thumb 60% mark is so months when Federal tax credits were still being offered to first -time severe that recession would be nearly inevitable. The debt -to -GDP ratio and other qualified buyers. The National Association of Home Builders for Greece is almost 150% and is expected by many to rise to 160% in (NAHB) housing market index rose from 19 to 21 in December, the 2012. In October a haircut of 50% on privately held Greek debt was fourth consecutive month of improvement and the highest level since agreed upon at a European Summit in return for severe cutbacks in May 2010. Improved sales and a less dim outlook have boosted new "ding. By the beginning of 2012, as the Greek financial situation construction. November housing starts were stronger than expected, inued to deteriorate, the expected haircut number had increased with starts jumping by 9.3% to a 685k annual rate, the highest since by an additional 10 %, and two -year Greek bonds were yielding a record April 2009. Multi-family starts were up 25% as the shift to apartments 176% in the secondary market as investors demanded dramatically and rental units continued, but single family starts also rose, increasing higher yields to compensate for the rising possibility of default. The by 2.3% to a five -month high. In a sign that the starts data may possibly debt problem isn't just restricted to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. have legs, building permits rose to a one -year high. ' 1 ,IPLOYMENT 6% year- over -year. ZDNet reported that online sales had jumped 15% in November and December to total $37.2 billion in holiday season revenue Unemployment Rate ( Left Hand Scale) Change i n Non -Farm P ayrolls (Right H and Scale) 10.0 - 250 for 2011. Strong online `Black Friday" shopping numbers in November were followed by even better "Cyber Monday" sales. Online revenues for the 9.5 - - 200 Monday after Thanksgiving exceeded $1.25 billion, a 22% increase from last year. Online sales on the Friday after Thanksgiving were $816 million, a 26% - 150 increase from the prior year. 9.0 - - 100 But, like most indicators, recent improvement in consumer spending is 9.s - from extremely low levels. American consumers have been cutting back on - s° their spending for years. In fact, with one exception, total household debt has B °- m T i ' i I1 fth 1 T i ,, I I 0 fallen every quarter for the past four years. This is very unusual. According • to FTN Financial, this is the first sustained dedine since the 1980's. At the 7.5 3o risk of flying off on a tangent, it's worth mentioning that from 2003 to 9 o < e m -. 3 y 3 , c c m o e ,, q < _ - m v 2007, Americans withdrew $2.1 triffion in equity from their homes. With this massive individual stimulus no longer available and tighter lending 1 mg Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate I standards firmly in place it becomes dear why spending has slowed. The question is ...when does the consumer feel confident enough to really ramp EMPLOYMENT up their spending? Maybe the answer is starting to show up in the monthly Change in Non-Farm Payrolls confidence numbers. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index By the end of the summer, hiring by companies had come to a virtual jumped 9.3 points in December to 64.5, reflecting significant increases in standstill with zero gain in nonfarm payrolls being reported in the initial both future expectations and the present situation components. During the August employment reading. But things improved considerably after that low point of the cycle (and apparently the historical low) in February 2009, point Company payrolls grew by 200k in December and a total of 621k in the confidence dipped all the way to 25.3. By contrast, in November 2007, just final four months of the year. Even the August job count was subsequently before the recession began, it was 87.8. revised from zero to up 104k. For all of 2011, employers added more than 64 million new workers. Although this pace doesn't suggest a return to INFLATION : mployment anytime soon, it appears relatively healthy when compared 4.5 45 o 5 million jobs l ost i n 2009. As businesses began hiring, the December unemployment rate fell to 8.5 %, more than a point and a half below the 3.5 - - 3.5 10.1% cycle high from October 2009 and the lowest level in more than 2'/2 - years. But, this number has been viewed with a high degree of skepticism as c2, 2.5 - - 2 (] the labor force participation rate has been dropping and currently hovers m near its low point for the last decade. The U6 unemployment rate, a much a 1.5 - - 1 broader measure that includes everyone who would accept a full -time job if one were offered to them (induding all of the discouraged workers and as - 11111111k 1 1 1 1 1 - 0. involuntary part- timers) is still historically high, but also on the dedine. The U6 measure fell from 15.6% to 15.2% in December. Just four months ago, -0.s • -0 this rate was 16.4 %. m c 3 ' m L- v o? m k c 3? 3 a o o m 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 o 8 o o.... -, -. .. -. - -. Going forward, itisn' tclearthatthepaceofjobgrowthwillpickupsignificantly I - CPI - Core I in 2012, but recent weekly initial claims data suggests that businesses should continue to add to payrolls. First -time filings for unemployment benefits fell CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: toa3'/ -year low in December, and the four -week movingaveragefelltoits Core Rate (Excluding Food & Energy), Year - Over -Year lowest point since the spring of 2008. Confidence readings are also flashing improvement in the labor market The December Conference Board survey The European crisis has resulted in a stronger dollar, and contributed to a showed the percentage of consumers believing jobs were plentiful rose to the global slowdown that has curtailed overall demand for commodities. Cotton highest level in three years, while those who thought jobs were hard to get and corn prices hit all-time highs in the first half of the year, before dropping dropped to a three-year low. along with virtually all commodities as the year progressed. Between the peak in April and the end of 2011, the DOW UBS Commodities Index CONSUMER SPENDING fell 20%. Oil prices also peaked in April with WTI closing just under $114 per barrel. By year -end, oil had dosed at $98.83, up 8.2% for the year. The November retail sales rose just 0.2 %, a sharp dedine from revised gains of average gasoline price, according to AAA was $3.27 per gallon at year -end, 1.3% and 0.6% in September and October respectively, but a late month rally approximately $0.25 lower for the quarter, but still $0.19 higher on the by holiday shoppers seemed to have put December's numbers back on track. year. As food and energy prices abate, the consumer price index has moved e store sales for businesses with doors open for a year or more were up gradually lower with headline CPI falling from 3.9% in September to 3.4% in - /o over last year, but there were dearly winners and losers amongst the November. But if food and energy prices are taken out of the equation, core 22 retailers tracked by the Reuters Index. Mary's celebrated a 62% year- CPI tells a different story, up from 0.8% a year earlier to a three -year high of over -year increase, while the Gap tumbled 4% from last year. Kmart and 2.2%. In order for the Fed to justify its easy money policy, core consumer Sears are expected to dose as many as 120 stores after dropping 4.4% and inflation will have to remain below 3.0%. Fortunately, most economists d Fed officials are under the impression that significant slack in the labor intraday highs and lows was 126 points through July, and more than doubled market, along with a general decline in the global economy will result in a to 261 points for the last five months. Bloomberg News also reported that moderation of core inflation in the coming months. corporate profits had risen by just 6% in the final quarter of the year, the smallest year- over -year quarterly growth since September 2009. Despite this THE FED fact, and a very uncertain environment ahead, the median forecast from 16 of the nation's top equity managers as reported by Business Insider, shows a The Fed lowered the overnight funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25% more median forecasted stock market gain for 2012 of 8.3 %, a seemingly attractive than three years ago. At the time, most figured monetary policy was at an earnings rate at a time when cash pays nothing. emergency level that would be in place for six-to 12- months. This hasn't turned out to be the case at all. In fact, last quarter Fed officials announced that they expected to leave the overnight funds target in place for another S& P two years. As a result, yields inside of two years generally traded near record DOW 500 NASDAQ lows all quarter long. With an anchor set on the short end of the curve, the 9/30/11 10,913 1,131 2,415 Fed continued "operation twist," a plan announced at the end of the third quarter intended to drive down longer -term yields by selling Fed portfolio 12/31/11 12,218 1,258 2,605 holdings with short maturities and reinvesting proceeds into longer -term ° Iliatigp 1 12% 11% bonds. For the most part, this strategy has worked. The 10 -year Treasury note yield closed the year at 1.87 %, below the third quarter average of 2.40% and the fourth quarter average of 2.03 %. Fed 3 mo 6 mo 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr Funds T -bill T -bill T -note T -note T -note STOCK MARKETS Last 9 0.0 002% 0.05% 0 It was nearly a complete reversal for stocks in the fourth quarter, with the 0 00% 0.02% DI7 0316 1.20% 2.40% DOW gaining more than 1,300 points, or 12% during the final three months, while the S&P 500 index gained over 11% in Q4 to dose within 4/100th Low _ 0.00% -0.01 % 0.02% 0.22% 0.80% 1.76% of a point of its 2010 dose. The Dow finished up 246 points for 2011, but End Ma 0 % 0.06% 024°Xy 0 the volatility was extreme. Bloomberg News reported the average between ' a,r 4 :1iF **4i" k -c�' 4* Abw 6 Y0 ' 104i. ' ` s,� t . y s Y av a 772: ECONOMIC AND INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK Although the economy finished the year on an upswing, there are many them to expire would subtract from GDP growth. In order to further goose obstades in its path, not the least of which is the housing market. A housing the economy, the government would have to grant additional stimulus, an crash ignited the recession, and continued deterioration is stifling recovery. unlikely scenario when the nation's focus is squarely on reducing the deficit According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, six million homes have been The so- called "supercommittee" failed in its charge to reach a compromise foreclosed on since 2007, and another eight million homes will be liquidated agreement on how to reduce the Federal deficit by $1.5 trillion over 10- years. over the next four years. All told this would represent a quarter of all homes As a result, automatic spending cuts will begin in 2013. In the glass -half- with mortgages. This glut of foreclosed properties is hammering home prices full realm, this delay is good news for 2012 growth. Energy prices could be and by proxy, Americans' household net worth. The S&P Case - Shier 20- another positive for the economy. Pump prices rose above $4 per gallon city index reached the lowest point since March 2003, and in nine of the 19 briefly in May, but ended the year heading in the right direction with AAA cities with historical data going back to 1991, real prices are currently lower reporting a nationwide average price of $3.25 for regular unleaded as of than they were 20 years ago. At the beginning of 2012 Fed officials sent a 26- December 29th. Lower gasoline prices are highly stimulative, and unless page white -paper to congressional leaders addressing the housing problem Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, decreased worldwide demand could nudge and offering solutions. In it, Fed officials said that lending standards had gasoline prices still lower. become "extraordinarily tight," and urged more aggressive use of Fannie and Freddie to support housing recovery. The white -paper proposed that With all of this factored in, the likelihood of a "double -dip recession" has foredosed single - family homes be converted to rentals to halt the decline nearly dissipated, and the median forecast for GDP growth in 2012 now in home prices. Recovery in housing is essential to sustained recovery, but falls between 2.0% and 2.5%. This would qualify as moderate growth at people will need jobs before they are able to buy homes. best, and at this pace high unemployment would linger for years. The Fed recognizes this, and has done everything it can to get the economy back on The labor market is gradually gaining momentum, but has a long way to track. As part of this strategy, they've pledged to keep the overnight funds go. Factory jobs are returning, and recent ISM surveys indicate that factory rates at record lows for at least another 18 months. Later in 2012, the FOMC managers plan to hire additional workers in the coming months. Auto sales will begin releasing its quarterly fed funds forecast to the public for the first picked up significantly in 2011, and with the average age of vehides on U.S. time. This may further darify the Fed's strategy, but few expect an earlier roads at a record 10.9 years, the outlook for 2012 sales is optimistic. With tightening date to emerge with the first release. In fact, the new consensus • - eased vehide sales, come additional manufacturing jobs. seems to be well into 2014. The possibility of another round of stimulus dollars is remote, unless that ScottMclntyre, CFA stimulus is a continuation of long -term unemployment benefits, the payroll Senior Portfolio Manager tax cut beyond February and further extension of the Bush tax cuts at the end January 6, 2012 of 2012. But frankly, these measures are already firmly in place. Allowing IOLBL mu `ugsny 01,6I almS laar2S tPXTS M 00£ iv )SeML anoS]said E , FirstSouthwest Tal " the likelihood of a "double -dip recession" has nearly dissipated, and the median forecast for GDP growth in 2012 now falls between 2.0% and 2.5 %. Read more inside. The paper was prepared by First Southwest Asset Management (FSAM) and is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not titute legal or investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information provided is paper was obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, it is not guaranteed to be correct, complete, or current, and is not intended to imply or establish standards of care applicable to any attorney or advisor in any particular circumstances. The statements within constitute the views of FSAM as of the date of the report and may differ from the views of other divisions /departments of First Southwest Company. In addition, the views are subject to change without notice. 'this paper represents historical information only and is not an indication of future performance. 0 2011 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TRS0112088