Quarterly Review Report TY OF
TEXAS
Finance Department's
Q uarterly
For the period ended June 30, 2011
City of Southlake
July 2011
Integrity • Innovation • Accountability • Commitment to Excellences Teamwork
1
To: Shana Yelverton, City Manager
Jim Blagg, Assistant City Manager
From: Sharen Jackson, Finance Director
Re: Third Quarter
FY 2011 Financial Report
Date: July 29, 2011
The finance department is pleased to submit a fmancial report for the third quarter of
FY 2011 for the period ended June 30, 2011. This report contains fmancial statements
for the City's operating funds, status reports of the Capital Projects and a report of the
City's Investment portfolio.
GENERAL FUND REVENUES
Property tax. In the General Fund, $17,089,265 of $17,045,152 or 100.3% of budgeted
property tax has been collected. Since property tax bills are delinquent as of February 1,
most tax collections are received in the first four months of the fiscal year. Tarrant
County has collected the City's taxes since 1982.
Sales tax. Sales tax budgeted for Fiscal Year 2011 is $7,521,095. For FY 2011 third
quarter (October through May) the City has collected $5,802,667 in sales tax. This is
21.02% or $1,007,806 above the projected amounts to date. City staff will continue to
monitor the economic environment make any necessary budget amendments during the
budget process this summer.
Franchise fees. Franchise fees include amounts received for use of public rights of way
from utility companies. To date the City has received $1,878,278 of $2,700,576
budgeted. FY 2011 collections are comparable to prior year's collections. A large
portion of the franchise fees are collected in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. Tri-
County pays their second semi - annual payment in July.
Fines/Forfeitures. Revenues from Fines and Forfeitures are $867,450, which is 85.5% of
the $1,015,000 budgeted. This revenue source depends on many variables, such as the
number of citations issued, warrants issued and collected, plus the number of cases
assigned to deferred adjudication. Citation volume is higher for third quarter FY 2011
compared to third quarter FY 2010. Citation volume is expected to remain consistent and
revenues from fines are anticipated to meet budget.
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Charges for services. This category includes revenue from ambulance transport,
recreation class fees, and amounts received from the Cities of Grapevine and Colleyville
for participation in the Teen Court program. Revenues to date total $859,179, compared
with $808,034 collected for the same period in the prior year. The majority of the
revenue for this category is seasonal and collected during the summer months. It is
anticipated that revenue from Charges for Services will be within budgeted amounts.
Permits /fees. Revenues from permits and fees are $977,788 or 141.3% of the budgeted
amount of $691,800. Year to date revenue is comparable to the $978,246 collected as of
June 30, 2010. 64 residential permits have been issued to date compared to 41 issued in
the prior fiscal year. 10 and 10 commercial permits were issued as of June 30, 2011 and
June 30, 2010, respectively. The average value for FY 2011 new commercial permits is
significantly less when compared to the value of commercial permits issued during FY
2010.
Miscellaneous. This category includes amounts from tower leases, the 10%
administrative fee retained from Municipal Court State taxes remitted quarterly to the
Comptroller, and library fees /fines. The City has received $616,014 to date. Revenues
from miscellaneous income will meet the $865,020 budgeted.
Interest income. Interest earnings to date total $55,000. It is anticipated that interest
income will be below budgeted amounts, staff will continue to monitor revenues and
make the necessary budget amendments during the budget process.
GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 of the fiscal year, General Fund total
expenditures are $21,214,440 or 69.1% of the $30,718,756 budget. A brief discussion of
each department will follow, providing a summary explanation of major expenditures
trends.
General government department. Department expenditures for the City Secretary's
Office, Human Resources, City Manager's Office, Information Technology and Support
Services total $2,944,219 which is 71.7% of budget. Personnel and operational
expenditures are on target with budget. Therefore it is anticipated that expenditures in
General Government will be within the amount budgeted.
Finance department. For the Finance, Municipal Court, Teen Court Divisions, total
expenditures to date are $1,411,975 or 74.4% of the $1,898,923 budgeted. Personnel,
operations and capital expenditures are within budget.
Public safety department. Total expenditures for Police Services, Fire Services, and
Public Safety Support, are $8,889,639, which is 71.2% of the $12,487,310 budgeted.
Currently, public safety expenditures are within budget and on target for the fiscal year.
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Public works department. Budgeted within this department are Facility Maintenance,
Streets/Drainage and Public Works Administration. Expenditures to date are $2,881,224
or 65.6% of the $4,393,489 budgeted. Personnel, operations and capital expenditures are
within budget.
Planning and development department. Total expenditures for Planning and building
inspections are $1,272,541 or 66.6% of the $1,909,887 budgeted for the year.
Expenditures in the Department are within budgeted.
Economic development department. The department has expended $135,668, or 64.3%
of the $210,936 budgeted for the year. Expenditures in the Department are within
budget.
Community services department. Total expenditures for Community Services, Parks
and Recreation, and Library Services are $3,679,174 or 64.4% of the $5,713,001
budgeted. Personnel expenditures are on target with budget. Expenditures in the
Department are expected to be within budget projections.
WATER AND SEWER ENTERPRISE FUND
Revenues. As of June 30, 2011, the City has received $13,988,498 or 68.9% in revenues
of the $20,316,250 estimated. This is higher when compared to $11,539,888 received
through June of last year. The greater part of the increase is due to October 2009 sales
were significantly less than October 2010 sales due to an extremely rainy month and
excessive high temperatures the city is currently experiencing. Total revenues for the
year will most likely slightly higher than budget.
Expenses. The City has expended $13,025,137 or 65.5% of the $19,882,527 budgeted for
personnel, operations, capital, and debt services. Of the total expenses, $4,404,888 has
been paid to the City of Fort Worth for treated water.
STORM WATER FUND
Revenues. On October 17, 2006, City Council approved Ordinance No. 900 and 901
establishing the Storm Water Drainage Utility System and establishing the fee
respectively. As of June 30, 2011, the City has received $978,401 or 78.5% in revenue of
the $1,247,000 estimated.
Expenses. The City has expended $453,290 or 60.8% of the $744,929 budgeted for
personnel and operations. $275,056 was expended for drainage materials.
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DEBT SERVICE FUND
Revenues. The City has received $7,087,662 in current and delinquent property taxes
and $5,965,807 in operating transfers from other funds through June 30, 2011. This fund
pays the property tax supported and special revenue debt requirements for the City. The
first semi - annual payments were paid February 2011 totaling $9,657,079.
SOUTHLAKE PARKS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION (SPDC)
Operating Fund. As of June 30, 2011, $3,075,358 in the 1/2 cent sales tax has been
collected. SPDC sales tax receipts are 14.37% above estimates, or $386,475.
CRIME CONTROL AND PREVENTION DISTRICT (CCPD)
Operating Fund. As of June 30, 2011, $3,037,191 in the 1 /2 cent sales tax has been
collected. Sales tax receipts are 14.34% above estimates, or $380,935.
PARK DEDICATION FEE FUND
Revenues. The City has collected $10,462 of the $30,000 budgeted for the year. This
revenue source varies depending on the number of developments during a fiscal year, and
the park dedication fee credits given, if any, for open space and amenities. Staff will
continue to monitor revenues and make any necessary budget amendments during the
budget process.
TAX INCREMENT FINANCIAL DISTRICT (TIF)
Revenues. To date TIF received 7,251,435 revenues for the fiscal year. Historically, the
TIF revenues are not collected until the third quarter of the fiscal year.
STRATEGIC INITIATIVE FUND
Expenditures. As of June 30, 2011, the expenditures were $741,136 for heavy
equipment (paver and roller) and community enhancements (Town Square
Enhancements).
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HOTEL OCCUPANCY FUND
Revenues. The City has collected $546,242 or 84.5% in revenue of the $646,313
budgeted for the year. The Hotel Occupancy Tax is authorized under the Texas Tax
Code, Chapter 351. The City of Southlake adopted Ordinance No. 769 in February 2000,
levying a 7% tax on room receipts. The Hilton Hotel in Town Square opened in June
2007.
Expenditures. As June 30, 2011, the expenditures were $375,379 for marketing and
promotion.
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GENERAL FUND
Statement of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance
for the period ended June 30, 2011
with comparative actual amounts for the period ended June 30, 2010
(fiscal month 7- 75.00%)
Percen
Year to Date 2011 Collect =, Year to Date
REVENUES 6/30/11 Budget Ex. - . d . u 6/30/10
Ad Valorem Taxes $17,089,265 $17,045,152 100.3% $16,487,016
Sales Tax 5,802,667 7,521,095 77.2% 5,693,323
Franchise Fees 1,878,278 2,700,576 69.6% 1,718,417
Fines 867,450 1,015,000 85.5% 772,924
Charges for Services 859,179 912,685 94.1% 808,034
Permits/Fees 977,788 691,800 141.3% 978,246
Miscellaneous 616,014 865,020 71.2% 785,122
Interest Income 55,000 150,000 36.7% 26,835
Total Revenues $28,145,641 $30,901,328 91.1% $27,269,917
EXPENDITURES
City Secretary $237,957 $413,155 57.6% $251,002
Human Resources 263,943 403,785 65.4% 283,908
City Manager 426,995 556,111 76.8% 409,858
Information Technology 1,234,568 1,816,644 68.0% 1,240,804
Support Services 780,756 915,515 85.3% 646,320
General Government Total 2,944,219 4.105,210 71.7% 2,831,892
Finance 887,411 1,137,795 78.0% 844,538
Municipal Court 424,430 624,441 68.0% 475,519
Municipal Court-Teen Court 100.134 136,687 73.3% 95,542
Finance Total 1,411,975 1198,923 74.4% 1,415,599
Fire 3,981,894 5,280,252 75.4% 3,746,443
Police 3,995,235 5,671,657 70.4% 4,023,365
Public Safety Support 912,510 1,535,401 59.4% 1,215,913
Public Safety Total 8,889,639 12,487,310 71.2% 8,985,721
Streets/Drainage 1,219,760 1,618,825 75.3% 952,532
Facility Maintenance 945,057 1,769,271 53.4% 931,940
Public Works Administration 716,407 1,005,393 71.3% 722,851
Public Works Total 2,881,224 4,393,489 65.6% 2,607,323
Building Inspections 624,060 932,519 66.9% 572,121
Planning 648,481 977,368 66.3% 703,970
Planning and Dev Total 1,272,541 1,909,887 66.6% 1,276,091
Economic Development 135,668 210,936 64.3% 156.073
Economic Development Total 135,668 210,936 64.3% 156,073
Community Services 412,743 586,869 70-3% 355,921
Parks and Recreation 2,776,415 4,462,387 62.2% 2,682,420
Library Services 490,016 663,745 73.8% 475,912
Comity Services Total 3,679,174 5,713,001 64.4% 3,514,253
Total Expenditures $21,214,440 $30.718,756 69.1% $20,786952
Excess (deficiency) of
Revenue over Expenditures $6,931,201 $182,572 $6,482,965
OTHER FINANCING
SOURCES AND (USES)
Proceeds from lease/CO (net) $0 $0 $0
Transfer In -Other Funds 1,228,536 1,228,536 665,298
Transfer To-Other Funds (1,350,000) (1,350,000) (665,000)
Total Other Sources/(Uses) ($121,464) ($121,464) $298
Excess (deficiency) of
Revenues /other sources over Exp. $6,809,737 $61,108 $6,483,263
FUND BALANCE OCT 1 $7,626,006
Change in reserved fund balance $0
ENDING FUND BALANCE $7,687,114
fund balance percentage 25.02%
WATER AND SEWER ENTERPRISE FUND
Comparative Statement of Revenues and Expenses
for the period ended June 30, 2011 and June 30, 2010
(fiscal month 7- 75.00 %)
Percen'
Year to Date 2011 Collecte• Year to Date
REVENUES 6/30/11 Budget Ex. -nde. 6/30/10
Water Sales - residential $7,146,044 $10,600,000 67.4% $5,515,075
Water Sales - commercial 2,039,886 3,500,000 58.3% 1,574,312
Sewer Sales 3,449,994 4,500,000 76.7% 3,250,097
Sanitation Sales 1,034,878 1,260,000 82.1% 951,392
Other utility charges 232,152 243,250 95.4% 120,026
Miscellaneous 51,270 43,000 119.2% 98,052
Interest Income 34.274 170,000 20.2% 30,934
Total Revenues $13,988,498 $20,316,250 68.9% $11,539,888
EXPENSES
Water $5,529,964 $10,088,171 54.8% $5,122,257
Utility Billing 292,268 507,157 57.6% 251,368
Sewer 1,573,424 2, 183,740 72.1% 3,114,730
Sanitation 628,568 960,000 65.5% 544,660
Debt Service 1 5,000,913 6,143,459 81.4% 5.362,435
Total Expenses $13,025,137 $19,882,527 65.5% $14,395,450
Excess (deficiency) of
Revenue over Expenses $963,361 $433,723 ($2,855,562)
OTHER FINANCING
SOURCES AND (USES)
Transfer In -Other Funds $0 $0
Developer Contributions $0 $50,000 $0
Transfer Out -Other Funds (814,650) (814,650) (609,609)
Total Other Sources /(Uses) ($814,650) ($764,650) ($609,609)
Excess (deficiency) of
Revenues and other sources
over Expenses $148,711 ($330,927) ($3,465,171)
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE
1% SALES TAX REPORT
2011 Collected Budget Balance
Budget to Date Balance Percent
$ 7,301,095 $6,243,908 ($1,057,187) - 14.48%
FISCAL FISCAL FISCAL
YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc
MONTH 2009 -Dec 2010 -Dec 2011 -Dec
October 789,287 15.0% 679,511 - 13.9% 703,770 3.6%
November 771,761 -3.8% 688,980 - 10.7% 756,991 9.9%
December 1,060,018 -9.7% 1,151,019 8.6% 1,112,965 -3.3%
January 591,513 - 22.2% 596,748 0.9% 688,448 15.4%
February 638,087 2.9% 603,122 -5.5% 571,598 -5.2%
March 799,515 -6.6% 838,469 4.9% 942,332 12.4%
April 760,920 1.5% 712,838 -6.3% 744,210 4.4%
May 616,261 - 21.7% 654,222 6.2% 723,593 10.6%
June 753,093 - 17.9% 870,540 15.6% 0 - 100.0%
July 624,691 - 16.8% 681,329 9.1% 0 - 100.0%
August 655,442 -0.3% 688,033 5.0% 0 - 100.0%
September 793,431 -8.1% 856,997 8.0% 0 - 100.0%
TOTAL $8,854,019 $9,021,807 $6,243,908
Three Year Revenue Comparison
by Month
1 ,200,000 q
c
1,000,000
0
800,000 _ T.� - � m 461 j
600,000 d - - _
400,000
200,000
� ��6 � o °,, � �6 ��r ��.� jai ° ,e �J so ��6,
o ape O y u )a 00 C t` . '�
in FISCAL YEAR 2009 D FISCAL YEAR 2010 FISCAL YEAR 2011
Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.) %
Month 2010 2011 2011 2011 Difference Change
October( *) $679,511 $549,909 $703,770 $ 703,770 $ 153,861 27.98%
November( *) $688,980 $557,572 $756,991 $ 756,991 $ 199,419 35.77%
December( *) $1,151,019 $931,487 $1,112,965 $ 1,112,965 $ 181,478 19.48%
January( *) $596,748 $482,931 $688,448 $ 688,448 $ 205,517 42.56%
February( *) $603,122 $488,089 $571,598 $ 571,598 $ 83,509 17.11%
March( *) $838,469 $678,549 $942,332 $ 942,332 $ 263,783 38.87%
April ( *) $712,838 $576,880 $744,210 $ 744,210 $ 167,330 29.01%
May ( *) $654,222 $529,443 $723,593 $ 723,593 $ 194,150 36.67%
June ( *) $870,540 $704,504 $0 $ 704,504 $ - 0.00%
July ( *) $681,329 $551,380 $0 $ 551,380 $ - 0.00%
August( *) $688,033 $556,806 $0 $ 556,806 $ - 0.00%
September( *) $856,997 $693,544 L $ 693,544 $ - 0.00%
TOTAL $ 9,021,807 $ 7,301,095 $ 6,243,908 $ 8,750,142 $ 1,449,047
* Beginning April 2006 includes Grand Avenue sales tax collections per 380 agreement
80% of collections will be distributed to Cooper & Stebbins
SOUTHLAKE PARKS DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION
1/2% SALES TAX REPORT
2011 Collected Budget Balance
Budget to Date Balance Percent
$ 4,094,340 $3,075,358 ($1,018,982) - 24.89%
FISCAL FISCAL FISCAL
YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc YEAR % Inc
MONTH 2009 -Dec 2010 -Dec 2011 -Dec
October $ 388,753 15.0% $334,685 -13.9% $346,633 3.6%
November $ 380,121 -3.8% $339,348 -10.7% $372,847 9.9%
December $ 522,099 -9.7% $566,920 8.6% $548,177 -3.3%
January $ 291,342 - 22.2% $293,920 0.9% $339,087 15.4%
February $ 314,282 2.9% $297,060 -5.5% $281,534 -5.2%
March $ 393,791 -6.6% $412,977 4.9% $464,134 12.4%
April $ 374,781 1.5% $351,099 -6.3% $366,551 4.4%
May $ 303,531 - 21.7% $322,229 6.2% $356,396 10.6%
June $ 370,926 - 17.9% $428,774 15.6% $0 - 100.0%
July $ 307,684 -16.8% $335,580 9.1% $0 - 100.0%
August $ 322,829 -0.3% $338,882 5.0% $0 - 100.0%
September $ 390,795 -8.1% $422,103 8.0% 10 - 100.0%
TOTAL $ 4,360,934 $4,443,577 $3,075,358
Three Year Revenue Comparison
by Month
$600,000
I
$500,000 1
$400,000 .L_ .1--
$300,000 - -9 4: - - z° - --(
$200,000
$100,000
O '0tee J e �� ° � ' Q ° � ac 1 ,,,? x,14§ � � ,J � �� „„) 4 r Ac,
El FISCAL YEAR 2009 D FISCAL YEAR 2010 FISCAL YEAR 2011
Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.) %
2010 2011 2011 2011 Difference Change
MONTH
October $334,685 $308,381 $346,633 $ 346,633 $ 38,252 12.40%
November $339,348 $312,678 $372,847 $ 372,847 $ 60,169 19.24%
December $566,920 $522,364 $548,177 $ 548,177 $ 25,813 4.94%
January $293,920 $270,820 $339,087 $ 339,087 $ 68,266 25.21%
February $297,060 $273,713 $281,534 $ 281,534 $ 7,821 2.86%
March $412,977 $380,520 $464,134 $ 464,134 $ 83,614 21.97%
April $351,099 $323,505 $366,551 $ 366,551 $ 43,046 13.31%
May $322,229 $296,903 $356,396 $ 356,396 $ 59,493 20.04%
June $428,774 $395,075 $0 $ 395,075 $ - 0.00%
July $335,580 $309,206 $0 $ 309,206 $ - 0.00%
August $338,882 $312,248 $0 $ 312,248 $ - 0.00%
September $422,103 $388,928 $ $ 388,928 $ - 0.00%
TOTAL $ 4,443,577 $ 4,094,340 $ 3,075,358 $ 4,480,815 $ 386,475
14.37%
SOUTHLAKE CRIME CONTROL AND PREVENTION DISTRICT
1/2% SALES TAX REPORT
2011 Collected Budget Balance
Budget to Date Balance Percent
$ 4,065,675 $3,037,191 (1,028,484) - 25.30%
Fiscal Year Percent Fiscal Year Percent Fiscal Year Percent
2009 Increase/ 2010 Increase/ 2011 Increase/
MONTH Actual (Decrease) Actual (Decrease) Actual (Decrease)
October $352,123 5.38% $320,459 -8.99% $351,298 9.62%
November 404,136 7.42% 336,820 - 16.66% 370,998 10.15%
December 524,522 -2.22% 540,201 2.99% 529,531 -1.98%
January 291,077 - 19.74% 227,361 - 21.89% 336,342 47.93%
February 301,800 0.82% 293,001 -2.92% 281,634 -3.88%
March 369,206 -3.55% 383,172 3.78% 440,772 15.03%
April 369,637 1.81% 351,672 -4.86% 366,425 4.20%
May 302,309 - 22.13% 320,824 6.12% 360,191 12.27%
June 400,928 -4.87% 412,362 2.85% - - 100.00%
July 301,868 - 16.69% 331,914 9.95% - - 100.00%
August 320,158 0.41% 331,914 3.67% - - 100.00%
September 363,230 -8.22% 395,444 8.87% - - 100.00%
TOTAL $4,300,994 $4,245,144 $3,037,191
Three Year Revenue Comparison
by Month
$600,000
$500,000 1
$400,000
$300,000
1 1 1 1 1 $200,000
$100,000 1 1
i. .
0- 40 ee a cJa cl e a c1 0 v \l' tee ���� „.,0 � �� e c
o 4 ` e
. o ne Q vQ
o Fiscal Year 2009 Actual • Fiscal Year 2010 Actual Fiscal Year 2011 Actual
Actual Budget Actual Estimated (budget -est.)
2010 2011 2011 2011 Difference Change
October $ 320,459 $ 306,911 $ 351,298 $ 351,298 $ 44,387 14.46%
November $ 336,820 $ 322,580 $ 370,998 $ 370,998 $ 48,418 15.01%
December $ 540,201 $ 517,363 $ 529,531 $ 529,531 $ 12,168 2.35%
January $ 227,361 $ 217,749 $ 336,342 $ 336,342 $ 118,593 54.46%
February $ 293,001 $ 280,614 $ 281,634 $ 281,634 $ 1,020 0.36%
March $ 383,172 $ 366,973 $ 440,772 $ 440,772 $ 73,799 20.11%
April $ 351,672 $ 336,805 $ 366,425 $ 366,425 $ 29,620 8.79%
May $ 320,824 $ 307,261 $ 360,191 $ 360,191 $ 52,930 17.23%
June $ 412,362 $ 394,929 $ - $ 394,929 $ - 0.00%
July $ 331,914 $ 317,882 $ - $ 317,882 $ - 0.00%
August $ 331,914 $ 317,882 $ - $ 317,882 $ - 0.00%
September $ 395,444 $ 378,726 $ - $ 378,726 $ - 0.00%
TOTAL $ 4,245,144 $ 4,065,675 $ 3,037,191 $ 4,446,610 $ 380,935
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CIITY OF
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FINANCE DEPARTMENT
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PROGRAM
QUARTERLY STATUS REPORT
June 30, 2011
The Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) establishes a five (5) year funding schedule for
the purchase, construction or replacement of physical assets of the City. Capital
improvements typically have a useful life of over ten (10) years and a value greater than
$10,000. Most CIP projects typically involve major infrastructure development and
improvement. CIP projects are primarily funded through General Obligation (GO) bonds
and Revenue Certificates of Obligation.
The City of Southlake's CIP Quarterly Status Report has been designed as a resource
tool to be utilized by City staff, citizens of Southlake, and the community at large. The
objective of this report is to provide timely and accurate information in a user friendly
format regarding construction and other improvement projects in the City of Southlake.
Projects within the City's CIP are categorized as follows: Street and Drainage
Improvements, Traffic Management Projects, Water System Improvements, Sewer
System Improvements, Crime Control Projects and Southlake Parks Development Corp.
Improvement Projects.
1400 Main Street Suite 440 • Southlake, TX 76092
(817) 748 -8042 • www.ci.southlake.tx.us
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Street and Drainage Improvements 1
Traffic Management Projects 5
Water System Improvements 7
Sewer System Improvements 9
Crime Control Projects 10
Southlake Parks Development Corp Improvements 11
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
FM 1938 Randol Mill Road from On December 31, 2001, the TCC approved a Minute Order
FM 1709 north to the city limits giving the extension of FM 1938 along the Randol Mill ROW
Priority II funding status and Farm to Market designation.
The project involves paving, utility and drainage
improvements along the existing Randol Mill Road from
FM1709 to SH114 to its ultimate pavement section of four
lanes divided. Construction of FM1938 will be in two phases.
Phase 1 is from the bend in Randol Mill Road to SH114.
Phase 2 is from the intersection of FM1709 and Randol Mill
Road /Davis Blvd. to the bend in Randol Mill.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 2,476,449 $ 1,316,926 $ 1,159,523
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Phase 1 of the project was awarded in August 2009 with a
contract time of 448 working days and construction is
currently ongoing. Phase 2 is currently under design.
Right of way and easement appraisals began in January
2011 for acquisition by Tarrant County.
Completion Date: Pending completion of Phase I
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
N. White Chapel Ultimate N. White Chapel from Emerald This project is for the design of the ultimate roadway
Roadway to State Hwy. 114 section (4 lanes divided) as depicted by the Thoroughfare
Plan. This project also includes necessary drainage and
utility improvements.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 7,695,000 $ 591,688 $ 7,103,312
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest, Roadway Impact funds Design is currently underway. Construction is tentatively
scheduled to begin in 2013.
Completion Date: FY 2013 -14
Page 1
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
Sidewalks throughout the city Various locations Construction of sidewalks in areas where staff has received
requests for the installation of sidewalks, primarily around
schools and areas where sidewalks would improve
pedestrian safety. This project also consists of the
installation of sidewalks along FM1709 to fill in existing gaps
not being constructed in conjunction with the deceleration
lanes. In addition to support from TxDOT, federal matching
funds from the State Transportation Enhancement Program
supports this project as well.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 2,207,168 $ 485,141 $ 1,722,027
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, Strategic Initiative Fund transfer Construction is anticipated to begin in 2011.
Completion Date: When funds are depleted
Title: Location: Project Description:
N. Kimball Avenue N. Kimball Ave from SH 114 to This project involves paving, utility, and drainage
Dove Rd. improvements for the widening of North Kimball Avenue from
SH 114 to Dove Road to its ultimate four lane divided
pavement section. The construction of this project will be
divided into two Phases. Phase I is along N. Kimball Ave.
from SH 114 to Kirkwood Blvd. and Phase II is the
continuation along N. Kimball Ave. from Kirkwood Blvd. up to
Dove Rd.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
5,380,000 $ 3,187,713 $ 2,192,288
Funding Source(s): Status:
Roadway Impact fees, G.O. Bonds Right of way acquisition is currently ongoing north of
Kirkwood Blvd. Construction began in December 2010.
The contractor and franchise utilities are currently installing
or relocating utilities to accommodate the additional lanes,
center landscaped medians and 6 -ft sidewalks on both
sides of the road.
Completion Date: FY 2011 -12
Page 2
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
FM1709 medians and urban Entire length of FM1709 within The Urban Design Study included median layouts along the
design enhancements city limits entire length of FM1709 within the City of Southlake, and
included a conceptual design for landscaping, irrigation and
miscellaneous hardscaping.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 2,000,000 $ 1,535,380 $ 464,620
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds Construction is currently ongoing through fall 2011.
Completion Date: FY2010 -11
Title: Location: Project Description:
Roadway reconstruction in multiple Heatherwood Estates, Royal Oaks The project includes the reconstruction of the streets in the
subdivisions, Dove Road and Addition, Twin Creeks Addition, Heatherwood, Royal Oaks, and Twin Creeks subdivisions as
Primrose Lane. Primrose Lane and Dove Rd. from well as the reconstruction of Dove Road from Lonesome
Lonesome Dove to North Kimball Dove to North Kimball Avenue and the widening and
reconstruction of Primrose Lane. The roadway work will
begin subsequent to the construction of sanitary sewer lines
and /or water lines in the mentioned locations.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 1,672,327 $ 938,509 $ 733,818
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds The project was awarded in November 2009 by the City
Council. Construction is approximately 95% complete.
Completion Date: Summer 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
Kirkwood Blvd. - N. This project involves funding for the design and construction
Carroll connector of two concrete north lanes along Kirkwood Blvd. from the
existing Kirkwood terminus to Grace Ln. This project also
involves the reconfiguration of two asphalt lanes along
Highland St. west to Blythe to connect to Kirkwood Blvd.
Also included is the reconfiguration of the Highland and
Kirkwood intersection. This project is needed to facilitate
travel to and from the new Carroll ISD middle school opening
in fall 2011.
Page 3
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Street & Drainage Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 1,845,300 $ 1,163,685 $ 681,615
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, Strategic Initiative Fund The contract was awarded by the City Council on November
16, 2010 and work began December 6, 2010
Completion Date: Summer 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
PMA - Citywide Various locations The PMA is an on -going program which consists of the
Pavement Rehabilitation repair and /or rehabilitation of local streets throughout the
City of Southlake after the completion of neighborhood
utility projects.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 1,793,923 $ 170,862 $ 1,623,061
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds Construction status varies
Completion Date: When funds are depleted
Title: Location: Project Description:
Woodland Heights Connector Westwood Drive & This project involves paving and drainage improvements
Village Center to connect Westwood Drive to Village Center.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 700,000 $ 56,995 $ 643,005
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds Design is approximately 90% complete.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Page 4
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Traffic Management Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
Agreement with TXDOT for Jellico Court East and West Construction of intersection improvements with
construction of deceleration Brock Dr., Meadowlark Ln., deceleration lanes along FM 1709 from Jellico Circle
lanes at various locations Southridge Lakes Pkwy & West to Bank Street.
along FM 1709. Waterford Dr., Ginger Ct., Stone
Lakes PI., Timber Lake PI., Lake
Crest Dr., Bicentennial Park,
Diamond Blvd. /Byron Nelson
Pkwy., Foxborough Ln., Miron Dr.,
Westwood Dr., Commerce St.,
Bank St.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 500,000 $ 5,976 $ 494,025
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Construction is currently ongoing through fall 2011.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Title: Location: Project Description:
Design of right tum deceleration Various locations on Southlake Professional services agreement with TranSystems
lanes Blvd. Corporation. Services will include design, right -of -way
surveying with digital aerial photogrammetry, preparation of
construction plans and specifications, and preparation of
construction documents. The project will also address
drainage and culvert issues that are necessary to
accommodate the widening.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 418,123 $ 324,965 $ 93,158
Funding Source(s): Status:
G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest The design of the deceleration lanes is complete and
construction is currently ongoing through fall 2011
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Page 5
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Traffic Management Projects —
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
FM1709 utility relocations Along FM 1709 This project consists of the relocation of existing water and
sanitary sewer lines to meet TxDOT's requirements for the
construction of the deceleration lanes at multiple locations
along FM 1709.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 628,100 $ 468,393 $ 159,707
Funding Source(s): • Status:
G.O. Bonds, G.O. Bond Interest Construction is currently ongoing. All city utilities have been
relocated with the exception of the 20" water line at Jellico
East and Jellico West. Utility construction at Jellico will be
completed in 2011.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Page 6
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Water System Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
30" water supply line to serve TW Segment A thru F Construct approximately 7,500 linear feet of 30" water
King Pump Station #2 TW King Pump Station #2 transmission line in order to fully utilize pump station #2 and
the ground storage tanks. Currently, this pump station is not
connected to the Fort Worth supply line. It has to be back
fed from pump station #1. This process is inefficient and
reduces the City's ability to pump water throughout the
system.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 14,263,260 $ 3,399,308 $ 10,863,951
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Design of Phases B, C, D and E is underway and
approximately 90% complete. Right of way acquisition is
approximately 30% complete for Segment B. Segments
C and D require both an interlocal agreement and a license
agreement with the City of Westlake, and Segment E
requires the completion of negotiations for an easement
with the property owner.
Completion Date: FY2012 -13
Title: Location: Project Description:
20" water main along Town Square to N. This project consists of approximately 8400 linear feet of
SH114 White Chapel 20 -inch transmission water line. The water line is needed in
conjunction with the construction of the 30 -inch water supply
main to TW King pump station #2
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 2,470,000 $ 120,953 $ 2,349,048
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Project design is complete. Construction is anticipated to
begin September 2011.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
T.W. King meter station T.W. King pump This project consists of the design and construction of a new
station #2 meter station for the purpose of meeting the city's future
water demand. This project is a companion to the 30 -inch
water supply line to serve the T.W. King pump station #2.
Page 7
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
— Water System Improvement Projects —
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 372,600 $ 41,079 $ 331,521
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Design is approximately 50% complete and plans have
been submitted for review by the City's water supplier, the
City of Fort Worth. Construction is dependent upon the
completed placement of the 30 -inch water supply line
segments.
Completion Date: FY2012 -13
Title: Location: Proiect Description:
12" water line along Lonesome Dove to This project is for the installation of approximately 5500
Dove Road N. Kimball Ave. linear feet of 12" water line along Dove Road. It is being
done in conjunction with the installation of sanitary sewer
and road reconstruction on Dove Road.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 710,800 $ 643,240 $ 67,560
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation The construction of the water and sewer lines is mostly
complete.
Completion Date: Summer 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
8" waterline along North of Dove Road This project consists of the design and construction of
Kimball Ave. approximately 3600 linear feet of 8" water line along
Kimball Ave.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 555,549 $ 32,831 $ 522,718
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation Construction is anticipated to begin Summer 2011.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Page 8
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Sewer System Improvement Projects
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
8" sewer line Heatherwood Estates This project involves providing sanitary sewer service to the
Royal Oaks Estates indicated neighborhoods which are experiencing problems
Twin Creek Estates with septic systems; also to improve groundwater quality
Pearson Lane within the city.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 4,133,663 $ 2,601,863 $ 1,531,800
Funding Source(s): Status:
Tax & Revenue Certificates of Obligation The project was awarded November 2009. Pearson Lane is
(issued in 2008) complete. Construction in Heatherwood, Royal Oaks and
Twin Creek Estates is approximately 95% complete.
Completion Date: Summer 2011
Page 9
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Crime Control Fund Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
North DPS Facility Dove Road and Fire station to support fire and EMS services for north
White Chapel part of the city. The facility will also double as a Police and
Fire Services training facility.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 1,200,000 $ 1,193,629 $ 6,371
Funding Source(s): Status:
Crime Control sales tax The project is currently in the design stage.
Completion Date:
Page 10
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Southlake Parks Development Corp. Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
Texas Parks and Wildlife trail Walnut Grove trail system Improvements to the Walnut Grove trail system.
restoration grant, matching fund Bob Jones Trailhead - 4 covered picnic tables and corral
participation fencing. Walnut Grove Trailhead - 2 covered picnic tables.
Erosion control and improvements to trail surfaces and
natural water crossings.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 43,160 $ 27,932 $ 15,228
Funding Source(s): Status:
Sales Tax Revenue Bonds, Project is approximately 65% complete
Matching Funds from Southlake Mounted Patrol
Completion Date: Summer 2012
Title: Location: Project Description:
Bicentennial Park design and Bicentennial Park Phase I improvements as part of the Bicentennial Park
development, Phase I schematic design include: Shady Oaks
entrance /road /round -a -bout; west baseball four -plex and
parking; drainage improvements with pond enhancements;
FM 1709 entrance improvements; Evan's house
modifications; Tennis Courts (from Phase II!)
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 11,599,736 $ 11,598,411 $ 1,326
Funding Source(s): Status:
SPDC Operating Fund Construction is essentially complete.
Sales Tax Revenue Bonds
Completion Date: Summer 2011
Page 11
CITY OF SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FY 2009 -10 CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PLAN
-- Southlake Parks Development Corp. Improvement Projects --
Report Date: June 30, 2011
Title: Location: Project Description:
North Park Development Phase I Dove Road and Development of park area for lacrosse fields with potential
White Chapel shared use for youth football and flag football. Improvements
include lighted athletic fields, trails, open space, playground,
parking, concession /restroom building, exercise equipment,
landscaping, irrigation, etc.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 6,656,387 $ 1,145,692 $ 5,510,695
Funding Source(s): Status:
SPDC Operating Fund Construction has begun and is approximately 11%
Sales Tax Revenue Bonds complete.
Completion Date: FY2011 -12
Title: Location: Project Description:
Koalaty Park playground Koalaty Park Improvements to an existing neighborhood park as
improvements identified in the Parks, Recreation and Open Space Master
Plan.
Total Estimated Cost: LTD Actual Cost: Cost to Complete:
$ 100,000 $ 37,320 $ 62,680
Funding Source(s): Status:
Park Dedication Fund transfer Project is approximately 50% complete
Completion Date: Fall 2011
Page 12
FirstSouthwest'
Most experts had believed the U.S. economy was on a self - sustaining path bond market investors will now have to absorb approximately $94 billion in
in the spring of 2011, but the lingering effects of the natural disasters Treasury debt every month.
in Japan, rising oil and gasoline prices, and wide scale flooding in the
Midwest combined to curtail growth and dampen the future outlook. In On June 13th, S &P cut the Greek credit rating by three levels to CCC, the
late February, economists surveyed by the WSJ had forecasted an average lowest of any rated country, citing a significantly higher probability of
Q1 GDP of 3.6 %. As it turned out, the final Q1 GDP reading (released default. With an absence of confident buyers, two -year Greek government
in June) was 1.9%, and more than two- thirds resulted from business bonds quickly traded at a crippling 30% yield. Equity markets fell around
inventory build -up. Real final sales were up only 0.6%. Unfortunately, the world as it became increasingly apparent that the problem would not be
the first quarter economic "soft patch" has lingered. The manufacturing easily contained, as much of the problem debt is held by major European
sector was hit particularly hard in the second quarter, and labor conditions banks. Bloomberg News reported that the credit default swap market
deteriorated significantly after three solid months of job creation. As indicated a 78% probability that Greece would not be able to meet its debt
summer approached, rising unemployment contributed to lower spending obligations. The following day, Moody's placed French banks BNP Paribas,
on housing, autos and retail sales. Weakening sales numbers troubled Societe Generale and Credit Agricole on CreditWatch negative due to their
equity investors, pushing stock prices lower. The debt crisis in Greece substantial Greek bond holdings. At quarter end, amid violent street protests
reemerged on the world stage and the U.S. debt ceiling debate in Congress and riots, the Greek government approved desperate austerity measures in
intensified. All three major rating agencies threatened to downgrade U.S. order to secure much needed funding from the European Union and IMF.
debt obligations if credible progress on the deficit was not made. Despite The latest rescue eased immediate concerns over Greece, but the European
these threats, interest rates, already near historical lows on the short end debt problem is still an overwhelming mess as much of the debt of the
of the curve, managed to dip even lower on a flight -to -quality away from severely troubled nations is held by the less troubled Eurozone countries.
the more troubled markets in Europe. By the time the second quarter drew The New York Times reported that Greece has a debt -to -GDP ratio of 150 %,
to a close, optimism had taken a beating, and the likely time frame for the and total debt outstanding of $236 billion with $45 billion owed to Germany
initial Fed rate hike had been extended yet again. and $75 billion to France. Germany also holds $184 billion in Irish debt,
$238 billion in Spanish debt and $47 billion in Portuguese debt.
MAJOR EVENTS
On June 27th, the Department of Energy announced that the U.S. and its
On April 18th, Standard & Poor's affirmed the AAA rating of the United partners in the International Energy Agency would release 60 million
States, but lowered the long -term outlook for Treasury securities from barrels of oil onto the global market over the next 30 days in an attempt
stable to negative, citing "very large budget deficits and rising government to counterbalance the supply shortfall resulting from unrest in the Middle
indebtedness," and pointing out that there was "no dear path to address East. The announcement quickly pushed crude prices briefly below $90
the issues." The report noted that "the U.S.'s fiscal profile has deteriorated per barrel, but the WTI price again approached $97 when market activity
steadily during the past decade, and worsened further as a result of the resumed after the Independence Day holiday. Crude oil prices will continue
recent financial crisis and ensuing recession." The negative outlook means to be a determining factor in whether the U.S. economy can recover from
S &P believes there's a one -in -three chance that U.S. Treasury securities will its recent soft patch.
be downgraded. The report stated that if an agreement on how to address
medium and long -term budget challenges were not reached, with at least
partial implementation beginning by 2013, the U.S. fiscal profile would HOUSING
become "meaningfully weaker than its peers." The following day, S &P revised 1,150 s.0
its outlook on Fannie, Freddie, FHLB and FFCB from stable to negative,
while at the same time affirming the AAA long -term credit rating of each. Six 1 0so - 7 5
weeks later, Moody's reported that it too would place the U.S. government's 050
rating under review for possible downgrade if no progress were made on
increasing the debt limit. Moody's went on to say that if Congress did raise 1 aso — 6.5
the debt limit, its AAA rating would be maintained, but the outlook would
depend on whether a credible deficit reduction plan was achieved. 750 - 6.0
650 - 5 ,
According to Bloomberg News, the U.S. has reached its debt ceiling 74
times since 1962, and each time, the limit was increased. Because the U.S. = 550 - 5 0
has always raised the ceiling, no one knows the consequences of not doing z 450 % - s.5
so. Higher interest rates are a likely possibility. Treasury Secretary Geithner ® E' .Ine Sales
has said that the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit on August 2 "d. Although 350 — 0� nom, S a, 6
the rating agencies have dramatically raised the stakes, politicians were still zs0 ,11 t i l t 1 1 I i 1 1 1 11 s
clinging to ideologies and making little progress with just a month to go. g; T 3 g ; r 3 g; A 3 g; T 3 a o;
10 < ? -1 iC < .G Ip
The second round of quantitative easing concluded on June 30", after eight ° °
months and $600 billion in Treasury purchases b y the Fed As the program NEW AND E J S T N G HOME SALE S
concludes, the U.S. Central Bank now holds more Treasury debt than China. A n n u a l i z e d by tt o n r h
Morgan Stanley estimated that the Fed had purchased roughly 85% of Home ownership peaked in 2004 at 69.2 %. Since then, its fallen to
net Treasury issuance since October 2010, and all but $17 billion of total 66.4%, the same as in 1998. The average home price has returned to 2002
Treasuries issued in 2011. Although the Fed is expected to buy an estimated levels for the simple reason that decreased demand for homes equals
$15 billion per month simply to maintain the size of its $2.9 trillion portfolio, lower prices. Since housing demand peaked way back in 2005 and the
FirstSouthwest Asset Management
recession technically ended two years ago, the tepid recovery has been was. University of Texas professor Sandy Leeds pointed out that 6.9% of
a disappointment. Without government support (which ended more recent college graduates were unemployed in May, down from 4% four
than a year ago) there simply aren't enough qualified and ready buyers years ago. Much of the reason has to do with aging baby boomers working
to counterbalance the massive supply of homes on the market. PIMCO longer than their predecessors. During the past decade, the percentage
portfolio manager Scott Simon went so far as to suggest that the housing of workers 55 years and older has jumped by more than five percentage
recovery has yet to happen, and actually forecasts continued price declines points to 37.5%.
of 6% to 8% across the country as well as an acceleration of foredosures
over the next three years. Although Simon doesn't believe housing will CONSUMER SPENDING
have a direct impact on GDP, he does believe that a depressed housing
market has a detrimental effect on consumer confidence and spending as The average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline topped $4 for the first
household net worth further erodes. time in nearly three years, and remained at the elevated level for much of
May. As expected, a drop in consumer spending power resulted and retail
May existing home sales fell 3.8% to an annual rate of 4.8 million units, sales fell 0.2% in May. Although this was a bit better than the 0.4% expected
the slowest sales pace in six months. On a year- over -year basis, existing drop, it was still the first outright decline since June 2010. Much of the
home sales are now down 15.3%. Approximately 31% of the May sales drop was attributed to slumping auto sales, which in turn were blamed on
represented distressed properties. This has kept pressure on existing home Japanese supply disruptions. Monthly vehicle sales plunged in May from
prices which were down 4.6% year- over -year to $166,500, near a 9 -year an annual sales pace of 13.1 million units to 11.4 million, the lowest in 9
low. There are officially 3.7 million existing homes available for sale, but months. The abundance of bad economic news took its toll on consumer
Reuter's recently reported this figure could be as high as 7 or 8 million if confidence, as the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell
foreclosed properties and those at risk of being repossessed are taken into significantly for a second straight month, down 7 points since April to a
account. Some experts believe this number might be even higher. New June reading of 58.5. By comparison, the confidence measure had averaged
home sales fell 2.1% to 319k in May, the first decline in three months and 101 from 2004 through 2007. Consumer confidence has never had a good
down more than 75% from historical highs in 2005. The median new home correlation with short-term spending patterns. In the past, an unhappy
price fell by 3.4% from the same period last year to $222,600. At this point, shopper was just as likely to spend money as a happy shopper, but newly
there are only 166k new homes available for sale. At their peak in 2005, imposed higher credit standards may have changed this. It doesn't seem to
new home sales made up about 16% of the total market; today it's less than matter where interest rates are or how much cash is in the system, those
4 %. The near -term outlook for construction is bleak, as there's little point Americans with acceptable credit simply don't want to borrow, and those
that do, are unable. This is a problem that hasn't really occurred before.
in building new homes when there's an abundance of deeply discounted
existing homes available. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that bank willingness to make loans
is at a 17 -year high, yet mortgage demand has fallen to a 13 -year low; this
EMPLOYMENT despite the average 30 -year mortgage rate falling to 4.46% in late June, the
lowest level of the year and 92 bps below the post - recession high of 5.38 %.
Unemployment Rate (Left Hand Scale) Change in Non -Farm Payrolls (Right H and Scale)
10.0 500
Fortunately, there's some support for a near -term rebound in spending. In
9.8 400
addition to lower gasoline prices in June d repair of the Japanese supply
9.8 - -- s°o chain, th consumer's financial position an is showing some improvement.
9.4 � 200 Bloomberg News reported that the average U.S. credit score rose to 696 in
9.2 May, the highest in four years. At the same time, the average debt service
100 to income ratio fell to its lowest level since 1994 and consumer loan
9.0 ° delinquencies dropped to a 30 -year low.
8.8
8.0 t90 INFLATION
8.4 200 as
8.2 300
3 c 3 a m o z o 31.3 3 3.5 , 5
Z.5 - 2 5
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls ® Unemployment Rate
EMPLOYMENT E 1.5 -15
Change in Non -Farm Payrolls 0.s
The labor market took a significant step backwards during the quarter.
After three straight months of nonfarm payroll gains averaging 220k,
-0.5
business payrolls unexpectedly added only 54k new jobs in May. The
unemployment rate, which had dropped to an encouraging 8.8% in March,
-1.5 - -1 5
rose from 9.0% to 9.1% in May as 272k persons entered the U.S. labor
force, exceeding the number of new jobs created. The official number of
Z5 25
unemployed persons was little changed at 13.9 million, while the number
P m o z o g a 3 a m p a v T 3 a 3
employed "part-time for economic reasons" held steady at 8.5 million and ' m - ° ' " ' Q
Fa 8 S another 2.2 million people were "marginally attached" to the labor force, ° " " ° ' J °
meaning they weren't counted among the unemployed since they hadn't ( NM= CPI Core
looked for work in the four -week period preceding the survey. So, the
employment picture is actually much bleaker than the 9.1% rate suggests, C O N S U M E R PRICE I iN D E
Core Rate i E x c I u c! i n g o Food Energy), Y? _
and even the tried -and -true college degree isn't the failsafe plan it once - 0 a r
A relative strengthening in the dollar helped ease commodities price average of 35 %. Unfortunately, the optimism that fueled a 6.4% increase in
pressure, with wheat, corn and soybeans down 18.5%, 9.3% and 4% the DOW in the first quarter, diminished substantially in the second, and
respectively in June. Cotton dropped 22%. Since closing at a 2'h year high if not for a furious 150 -point rally on the final day of the month, the DOW
of $113.93 per barrel on April 29 WTI crude ended the quarter below would have posted a quarterly loss, as did the S &P 500 and NASDAQ.
$95. The drop in oil prices was particularly welcome as rising oil prices
have a tendency to slow economic growth and to seep into the price of
seemingly unrelated consumer products. Century Management CIO S &P
Arnold Van den Berg estimated that a $10 increase in oil price has a $70 DOW 500 NASDAQ
billion dollar negative impact on the economy. Van den Berg also pointed 3/31/11 12,320 1,326 2,781
out that the effect of rising crude prices is felt not only at the pump, but 6/30/11 12,414 1,320 2,774
also in the manufacture of chemicals and plastics, agriculture- through
fertilizers, and clothing- through textile production. % Change for 132 -2011 +0.8% -0.4% -0.3%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May showed a bit more
inflation than expected. Headline CPI was up 0.3% while core CPI was up Fed 3 mo 6 mo 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr
0.2%. The median forecasts were up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. On a year- Funds T -bill T -bill T -note T -note T -note
over -year basis, core CPI was up 1.5%, well above a record low of 0.6% in
October 2010, but still within the Fed's likely comfort zone. Despite higher Last 3/31/11 0.00% 0.09% 0.17% 0.82% 228% 3.47%
CPI, Fed officials reiterated at the June FOMC meeting that "...inflation
will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's High 0.07% 0.15% 0.83% 2.32% 3.59%
dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price Low 0.01% 0.06% 0.33% 1.37% 2.86%
increases dissipate." If the Fed is right, and price pressures continue to
abate, they'll have the luxury of keeping the overnight funds rate near zero End 6/30/11 0.00% 0.01 % 0.10% 0.46% 1.76% 3.16%
for the foreseeable future.
STOCK MARKETS
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, first quarter after -tax
corporate profits dipped slightly from the all-time high in the previous
quarter, but still held above the pre- recession peak both in nominal and
real terms, suggesting that business profitability has made a complete
recovery. According to the New York Times, corporate profits are now up
47% over the first 21 months of recovery, compared to a post -World War II
ECONOMIC AND INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
The housing sector may get worse before it gets better as additional more than 2.5 %. The dollar difference over those three years is
foreclosed properties add to the massive supply of available homes. additional debt of $4 trillion.
The manufacturing slump should improve as the Japan supply Although the idea that the U.S. Central Bank will hold the overnight
chain returns to normal and auto production increases. Most funds rate steady until mid -to -late 2012 is now widely accepted,
analysts believe the labor market is in better condition than the interest rates in Europe are already on the rise. This, despite what
unexpectedly weak May payroll data indicated. So, barring some is probably a worse economic and political situation than here in
unforeseen event, economic growth is expected to pick-up slightly the U.S. In early June, European Central Bank President Trichet
sometime in the second half of the year. said that "strong vigilance" was necessary to quell inflation. This
But as the second half begins, all eyes are on the debt ceiling, and phrase usually signals a rate increase at the next monthly meeting
ultimately, the deficit. At the end of the June, Former Fed Governor which is scheduled for July. The Eurozone overnight rate has stood
Lawrence Lindsey highlighted the dire situation in an op -ed piece at 1.25% since April when the European Central Bank tightened
for the Wall Street Journal entitled "The Deficit Is Worse Than We its overnight rate for the first time in three years. Also concerned
Think." Lindsey pointed out that the average cost of all Treasury about inflation, China's Central Bank announced in early July that
borrowings is 2.5%, less than half of the 5.7% average of the past it would raise its short-term rate target for the third time in 2011.
two decades, and that if the U.S. were to return to the "normalized" Our own Central Bank is hoping inflationary pressures will simply
interest rate environment, interest expense would increase by an dissipate, as one of the last things the floundering U.S. economy
additional $4.9 trillion over a 10 -year period, well beyond the needs right now is a rate hike.
savings generated through most of the proposed long -term deficit
reduction plans. Lindsey also wrote how overly optimistic the Scott McIntyre, CFA
administration's economic growth targets were at 4% for 2012, 4.5% Senior Portfolio Manager
July 6, 2011
for 2013 and 4.2% for 2014, when academic consensus foresees no