1999-02-25CIAC :MEETING
SENIOR ACTIVITY CENTER
307 PARKWOOD DRIVE
SOUTHLAKE, TEXAS
FEBRUARY 25, 1999
MINUTES
CIAC MEMBERS PRESENT: Ann Creighton, F.C. LeVrier, Keith Shankland, and
C.D. Peebles.
STAFF PRESENT: City Manager Curtis E. Hawk, Assistant City Manager Shana
Yelverton, Director of Community Development Greg Last, Senior Planner Chris
Carpenter, Capital Improvements Coordinator Shawn Poe, and Public Works
Administrative Secretary Tammy Smith.
Agenda Item #1, Call to Order
The meeting began at 7:15 p.m. Shana Yelverton made brief opening comments
regarding the agenda for the meeting.
Agenda Item #2, Election of Chair and Vice Chair
Shana Yelverton explained the need for a chair and a vice chair. Keith Shankland
suggested keeping it the same chair as P&Z. He then recommended C.D. Peebles as
vice chair and Ann Creighton as chair. The committee collectively agreed on these
positions.
Agenda Item #3, Discussion: Land Use Assumptions / Growth Rate
Chris Carpenter began the presentation on land use assumptions. Land use assumptions
set the stage for determining the Capital Improvements Plan. Accepted planning
principles require accuracy, but not precision because precise projections are
impossible. The City uses common, simple methods unique to Southlake's
characteristics and situation, which can be easily explained and understood.
Service areas have not changed much since the 1995 study. Water and wastewater
continue to be the entire city, and the only change in roadway areas is the addition of a
service area to cover the newly annexed area of Solana.
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February 25, 1999
Page Two
Several reliable sources are used to aid in determining base year population including
census data and NCTCOG projections. Chris Carpenter explained how he further
evaluated population on a parcel -by -parcel basis to determine the population of each
Southlake traffic survey zone (TSZ). This exercise provides more accuracy for
estimating Southlake's population than relying on generic projections alone.
Employment count is important for this process because it creates a mechanism for
charging non-residential fees. Southlake tracks employment data closely. Staff knows
almost exactly the number of employees in Southlake due to efforts of Economic
Development staff.
This update assigns employment data by TSZ, which is needed for roadway fees.
There are 6,322 employees working in Southlake. The Solana annexation adds 5,000
to the number for a total of 11,322.
Ten-year population projections can be calculated several different ways. Mr.
Carpenter explained the linear method, which represents steady growth each year. The
exponential curve utilizes a compound growth rate, used primarily to project in high
growth situations with no limits. A logistic approach assumes growth but establishes a
"line" within the parameters of carrying capacity. The logistic approach best suits the
needs of Southlake's situation.
In establishing an input value, staff began with 1990 because this is when growth
began. Mr. Carpenter explained the decline in carrying capacity due to changes in the
Land Use Plan. The projections were adjusted based on those changes.
Traffic survey zones, or TSZ's, were established by census bureau and used by
NCTCOG for forecasting and are used to determine Southlake's roadway fee service
zones. Greg Last explained that these zones are used as data areas so that data does not
need to be recreated. This is a standard unit used by forecasting agencies for modeling.
The geographic information system is another tool Southlake staff uses to focus in on
specific areas for information.
Utilizing GIS, Mr. Carpenter was able to project population for the ten-year period
with more accuracy than was done in the previous studies. Expected population in
2009 is 33,060. This population figure will be close to the ultimate population.
Ann Creighton asked about the Solana annexation. Mr. Carpenter explained that it is
considered, although we've been careful not to use the existing 5,000 employees to
impact the employment projections because it would skew the data.
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February 25, 1999
Page Three
C.D. Peebles asked about the affect this would have on fees. Greg Last stated that the
Land Use Assumption shows it in such a way that it would be easily separated if
necessary, as it is shown as its own roadway service zone.
The ten-year employment projections rely less on NCTCOG projections because of
staff's ability to track with greater accuracy. This study contemplates the impact of the
newly annexed portion of Solana. Expecting 632 employees to be added per year, and
assigning by TSZ and sector, the Land Use Plan is used to assign employee growth to
areas where commercial -type land uses will provide for it.
Mr. Carpenter discussed the "mixed use" areas and how these areas were handled.
Individual parcels were considered based on known development plans. Unknown
areas were assigned a 10% residential component. Using these projections, build -out
population is expected to be 37,205. Mr. Carpenter discussed occupancy race and
persons per household. Both are high, tailored to the conditions in Southlake.
Ann Creighton asked how city -purchased properties impact the study. Greg Last
explained that there is minimal short-term impact; infrastructures are sized through a
big -picture effort. Shana Yelverton stated that traffic projects can also be substituted
should changes occur. Funds can be reallocated to different projects if needed.
Ann Creighton stated that NCTCOG work has been questioned, and asked why we use
their information. Curtis Hawk stated that they set the basis for this area, and we use
an industry -accepted method for assumptions. NCTCOG's numbers are theoretical, but
through our staff, we have the ability to more accurately depict our situation.
Agenda Item #4, Adjournment
C.D. Peebles stated he accepts reports as -is. Keith Shankland complemented the detail
and efforts of staff. The next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, February 25, 1999.
Attest:
Tammy S t , Administrative Secretary